Germany vs Serbia Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will Fantastic Franz Fire Germany to First World Title?

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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Germany vs Serbia 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup final odds prediction picks cover


It feels like the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup just started, but after two exciting weeks, only one day and two games remain. First is the USA vs Canada bronze medal matchup, then to close out the tournament, Germany and Serbia will face off for all the marbles (8:40 am ET, ESPN+).

On the way to an all-North American final, Germany and Serbia decided an all-European final would be better. In Friday’s semifinals, Serbia ended Canada’s championship chances with a 95-86 win, while Germany made shot after shot after shot after shot and withstood the USA’s fourth-quarter fightback in a memorable 113-111 win.

For both finalists, a win would be historic.

Yugoslavia, when it was made up of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia, won an Olympic gold and three FIBA World Cup titles before its dissolution in the early 1990s.

In the years following, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia–comprised of Serbia and Montenegro–won the World Cup in 1998 and 2002 before the two nations became fully independent.

If Serbia can defeat Germany, it will be their first Olympic, World Cup, or Eurobasket gold as an independent nation.

While Serbia has captured silver medals in all three competitions in their period of independence, this will be Germany’s first appearance in an Olympic or World Cup final. To date, their biggest achievement on the court came in 1993, when they won Eurobasket as the host nation.

Who will get the confetti, the trophy, and a place in hoops history? There doesn’t appear to be much between the two teams, based on the odds for the matchup.

Germany vs Serbia Basketball Odds

Odds are via Bovada.


  • Germany -1 (-110)
  • Serbia +1 (-110)


  • Over 175 (-115)
  • Under 175 (-105)


  • Germany -115
  • Serbia -105

Can Germany Complete a Perfect World Cup Run?

Franz Wagner Germany basketball FIBA World Cup 2023
Orlando Magic and Germany star Franz Wagner

While this is uncharted territory for Germany, this run is anything but fluky or fortunate.

Making it to an Olympic or World Cup final for the first time is an amazing achievement in itself.

But doing so with an unblemished record while having to face Australia, Slovenia, the USA, and a Latvia team that beat France and Spain and went on to claim fifth shows that their spot is absolutely deserved.

Not only have they been perfect, but they have managed to average 94.4 PPG while playing without one of their most important pieces for four games.

Results for Germany at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Friday, August 26: Germany 81-63 Japan
  • Sunday, August 28: Germany 85-82 Australia
  • Tuesday, August 30: Germany 101-75 Finland
  • Friday, September 1: Germany 100-73 Georgia
  • Sunday, September 3: Germany 100-71 Slovenia
  • Wednesday, September 6: Germany 81-79 Latvia
  • Friday, September 8: Germany 113-111 USA

What you would hope to happen when you get said important piece back for the most important games of the tournament has happened, as well.

After recording 16 points, eight rebounds, and three assists in his return to action against Latvia, Franz Wagner had 22 points and five rebounds against the USA.

Germany has been the most impressive team in the tournament, and it shouldn’t be up for debate at this point.

But will they check the final box on their to-do list and grab the gold? Serbia will have a lot to say about that.

Without Nikola Jokic, Serbia appeared to be behind the leading contenders entering the World Cup.

And while they cruised through the preliminary with wins over China, Puerto Rica, and South Sudan, a loss to Italy in their first game in the second round only cast further doubt on their contender credentials.

But that might have been the setback they needed.

In a do-or-die game, they blasted the Dominican Republic to wrap up a spot in the quarters. There, they dominated Lithuania, who had won five straight, including an upset of the USA.

Bogdan Bogdanovic Serbia basketball FIBA World Cup 2023
Serbia’s Bogdan Bogdanovic, who plays for the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks

That set up a semifinal matchup with Canada, who were favored to win after wins over Spain and Slovenia in their two previous games.

Serbia promptly shot the lights out against Canada, making 71.1% of their two-point shots and 62.1% overall from the field.

Results for Serbia at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Saturday, August 26: Serbia 105-63 China
  • Monday, August 28: Serbia 94-77 Puerto Rico
  • Wednesday, August 30: Serbia 115-83 South Sudan
  • Friday, September 1: Italy 78-76 Serbia
  • Sunday, September 3: Serbia 112-79 Dominican Republic
  • Tuesday, September 5: Serbia 87-68 Lithuania
  • Friday, September 8: Serbia 95-86 Canada

Like Germany, Serbia has done plenty of scoring in the World Cup, averaging 97.7 PPG, which is second behind the USA’s 102.6 PPG.

But does that mean we will have a high-scoring final?

The pressure and high stakes of a final, no matter the sport, can cause a much different style of play than in the games leading up to it.

For Serbia, the best path to victory might be to try to force Germany into the same mistakes that threw off Lithuania and Canada in the first half and allowed them to take control by halftime.

Germany vs Serbia Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Germany to win

Picks: 1) Germany ML (-115 at Bovada), 2) Franz Wagner over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at Bovada), 3) Daniels Theis over 17.5 points + rebounds (-115 at Bovada)

I’m inclined to favor the over, because I have rarely met an over I didn’t like.

But if you are looking to get in some over/under action, I highly suggest passing on a pre-game play and waiting to see how things play out over the first several minutes or first quarter and then hop on some live lines.

For pre-game plays, I’m focusing on the outcome and a couple of props I love.

Serbia’s performances in their wins over Lithuania and Canada were A+, but I’m riding with Germany. The run that they have been on has been outstanding, and I don’t see them coming up short of a deserved title.

Germany’s NBA contingent of Franz and Mo Wagner, Dennis Schroder, and Daniel Theis were all integral to the win over the USA, and out of the quartet, I’m picking out Franz Wagner and Theis for some prop love.

Wagner has scored in double figures, pulled down at least five rebounds, and dished out multiple assists in each of his three World Cup games.

Theis, who had 21 points and seven rebounds against the USA, is averaging 12.1 PPG and 5.6 RPG in the tournament, including 14.7 PPG and 7.3 RPG in his last three games.

Where to Bet on Germany vs Serbia

The Germany vs Serbia betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup odds.

Here are some of the reputable online sportsbooks that we recommend for betting on the FIBA World Cup and other basketball competitions and leagues like the NBA and WNBA:

In addition to odds for each game of the tournament, you can find FIBA World Cup futures odds at these books. We have reviewed each of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of those sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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