NASCAR Cup Series Jack Link’s 500 Predictions & Picks: Who Will Tame Talladega?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Apr 26, 2026, 6:30 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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For the first quarter of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, it has been Tyler Reddick's world, and we've all just been living in it. Is another sensational Sunday ahead for the series points leader? Today's test sees him take on Talladega for the Jack Link's 500, a race he won two years ago.
Last Sunday, Reddick ended a two-race winless drought with a wild win in the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway. Denny Hamlin was on course for the win as the race neared its conclusion, but a late caution gave Reddick a chance to snatch his fifth win in nine races.
With a quarter of the season in the books, Reddick holds a 102-point lead over Hamlin, with Ryan Blaney a further 15 points behind.
Will he extend that lead at Talladega? With qualifying canceled due to rain, Reddick will start on pole for the fifth time this season. Last week's win at Kansas Speedway took him to four for four this season with converting poles to wins.
At Talladega and other drafting tracks, starting position means much less than it does at many other tracks. But Reddick knows how to win there, and he already successfully navigated Daytona this season.
Will he remain cool, calm, and collected through the chaos again and claim his sixth win of the season? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, he is one of the favorites, but it's the Penske trio of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric—all former Jack Link's 500 winners—atop the odds ahead of Reddick, 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace, and William Byron.
Jack Link's 500 Race Information
- Race: Jack Link's 500 (Race 10 of 36 of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season)
- Venue: Talladega Superspeedway (Lincoln, Alabama)
- Track Type and Length: 2.66-mile oval
- Race Length: 188 laps (500.08 miles)
- Polesitter: Tyler Reddick
- Time: 3 p.m. ET (2 p.m. local)
- TV: FOX
Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Jack Link's 500
Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Sunday, April 26, 2026.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | +400 | 20.00% | 13.66% |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | 16.67% | 11.39% |
| Kyle Larson | +550 | 15.38% | 10.51% |
| Ryan Blaney | +650 | 13.33% | 9.11% |
| Chase Elliott | +750 | 11.76% | 8.03% |
| William Byron | +750 | 11.76% | 8.03% |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | 10.00% | 6.83% |
| Chase Briscoe | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.25% |
| Ty Gibbs | +1600 | 5.88% | 4.02% |
| Joey Logano | +1800 | 5.26% | 3.59% |
| Ross Chastain | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.67% |
| Bubba Wallace | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.34% |
| Chris Buescher | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.34% |
| Carson Hocevar | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.02% |
| Kyle Busch | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.02% |
| Brad Keselowski | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.84% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.84% |
| Connor Zilisch | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.68% |
| Austin Cindric | +12500 | 0.79% | 0.54% |
| Ryan Preece | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.45% |
| Alex Bowman | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.27% |
| Erik Jones | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.23% |
| Josh Berry | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.23% |
| Daniel Suarez | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.19% |
| Austin Dillon | +40000 | 0.25% | 0.17% |
| AJ Allmendinger | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.14% |
| Michael McDowell | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.14% |
| Zane Smith | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.14% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.09% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.09% |
| Cole Custer | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% |
| Noah Gragson | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% |
| Todd Gilliland | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% |
| Riley Herbst | +150000 | 0.07% | 0.05% |
| Ty Dillon | +200000 | 0.05% | 0.03% |
| Cody Ware | +300000 | 0.03% | 0.02% |
Jack Link's 500 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 2 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 4 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 7 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 8 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 9 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 10 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 11 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 12 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 13 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 14 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 15 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 16 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 18 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 20 | Alex Bowman (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 21 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 22 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 23 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 24 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 25 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 26 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 27 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | A.J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 29 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 30 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 31 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 33 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 35 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 36 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 37 | Jesse Love (33) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 38 | Chad Finchum (66) | Garage 66 (Ford) |
| 39 | Joey Gase (44) | NY Racing Team (Chevrolet) |
| 40 | Daniel Dye (78) | Live Fast Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
Jack Link's 500 Predictions and Picks
William Byron to Finish in the Top 10 (+105 at Lucky Rebel)
Byron has yet to win at Talladega, but his success at drafting tracks is why only Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have better odds to finish in the top 10 in the Jack Link's 500.
Five of Byron's 16 career Cup Series wins have come at drafting tracks (three at Daytona and two at Atlanta), and he has finished in the top 10 four times in the last five editions of this race.
Also, whether or not he finishes in the top 10 today, he will likely spend some time at the very front. In 16 career Cup Series starts at Talladega, Byron has led at least one lap 13 times, including six times in eight GEICO 500/Jack Link's 500 starts.
Brad Keselowski to Finish in the Top 10 (+125 at Lucky Rebel)
Keselowski is one of the all-time greats at Talladega, the site of six of his 36 career NASCAR Cup Series wins, including his first in 2009.
The most recent of those wins came in 2021, when he claimed the last of his 34 wins with Team Penske in that year's edition of this race. But he has come close on three occasions since then, coming in second in this race in 2024 (the race's last year as the GEICO 500 before the sponsorship switch to Jack Link's) and in the fall race in 2021 and 2024.
Last week, this same pick cashed as Keselowski finished sixth at Kansas Speedway. That was his fourth top-10 finish of the season, a number that took him 19 races to reach last season. It has been a solid start for the 2012 series champion, and I think that will continue with another strong showing at Talladega.
Todd Gilliland to Finish in the Top 10 (+300 at Lucky Rebel)
Who has the best average finish among active drivers with eight or more Cup Series starts at Talladega? That would be Gilliland, whose 13.1 average finish in eight starts beats out Byron's 14.4 in 16 starts.
Gilliland has found his most significant Cup Series success at Talladega, where he has recorded more top 10s (four of his 16 career Cup Series top 10s) and top-20 finishes (six) than any other track.
Also, while recent form merits only so much consideration at Talladega, it is worth noting that Gilliland has finished in the top 20 in each of the last two races (including a season-best sixth-place finish at Bristol) after finishing outside the top 20 in six of the first seven races.
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