NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400 Predictions & Picks: Will Reddick Win from Pole Yet Again?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Apr 19, 2026, 7:36 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Thus far in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, Tyler Reddick has done an excellent job of translating qualifying results into race success. Today, the series points leader will look to maintain a perfect record from pole in the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Through the first eight races of the season, Reddick has a series-high four wins. Three of those four wins have come from pole, at Atlanta Motor Speedway (Autotrader 400), Circuit of the Americas (DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix), and Darlington (Goodyear 400).
Reddick topped the charts in qualifying once again yesterday, with his time of 29.142 seconds edging out Denny Hamlin (29.161), Ty Gibbs (29.192), Kyle Larson (29.192), and Chase Briscoe (29.199).
For Reddick to maintain his perfect record from pole, he will have to see off some stiff competition.Bottom of Form Larson is the two-time defending winner of the AdventHealth 400, but no one has won this race more than Hamlin, the winner in 2012, 2020, and 2023.
And then there is Gibbs, who took his maiden Cup Series win last week at Bristol and enters today's race with five top-five finishes in his last six races.
Gibbs' recent success is reflected in where he stands at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, but he doesn't quite crack the top five favorites for the AdventHealth 400, with Reddick, Hamlin, Larson, Christopher Bell, and Ryan Blaney all sporting better odds.
AdventHealth 400 Race Information
- Race: AdventHealth 400 (Race 9 of 36 of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season)
- Venue: Kansas Speedway (Kansas City, Kansas)
- Track Type and Length: 1.5-mile oval
- Race Length: 267 laps (400.5 miles)
- Polesitter: Tyler Reddick
- Time: 2 p.m. ET (1 p.m. local)
- TV: FOX
Odds to Win the NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400
Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Sunday, April 19, 2026, at 5:40 a.m. ET.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | 16.67% | 10.79% |
| Tyler Reddick | +500 | 16.67% | 10.79% |
| Christopher Bell | +600 | 14.29% | 9.25% |
| Kyle Larson | +600 | 14.29% | 9.25% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 | 8.33% | 5.39% |
| Chase Briscoe | +1200 | 7.69% | 4.98% |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 | 7.69% | 4.98% |
| William Byron | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.32% |
| Bubba Wallace | +1600 | 5.88% | 3.80% |
| Carson Hocevar | +1600 | 5.88% | 3.80% |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 | 5.88% | 3.80% |
| Chris Buescher | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.08% |
| Brad Keselowski | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.58% |
| Joey Logano | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.58% |
| Austin Cindric | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.27% |
| Ross Chastain | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.27% |
| Ryan Preece | +6600 | 1.49% | 0.96% |
| Alex Bowman | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.80% |
| Corey Heim | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.80% |
| Daniel Suarez | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.64% |
| Erik Jones | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.64% |
| Josh Berry | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.64% |
| Kyle Busch | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.64% |
| Zane Smith | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.43% |
| Connor Zilisch | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.32% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.32% |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.32% |
| AJ Allmendinger | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.26% |
| Austin Dillon | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.26% |
| Noah Gragson | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.26% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.26% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.26% |
| Todd Gilliland | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.26% |
| Riley Herbst | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.18% |
| Cody Ware | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.06% |
| Cole Custer | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.06% |
| Ty Dillon | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.06% |
AdventHealth 400 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 3 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 4 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 6 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 7 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 8 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 11 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 12 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 13 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 14 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 15 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 18 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 20 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 21 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 22 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 23 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 24 | Corey Heim (67) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 25 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 26 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 27 | A.J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 29 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 30 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 31 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 32 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 33 | Alex Bowman (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 35 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 36 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 37 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
AdventHealth 400 Predictions and Picks
Ty Gibbs to Finish in the Top Five (+150 at Lucky Rebel)
With how well he was running, it was only a matter of time before Gibbs picked up his first Cup Series win. He did just that at Bristol, and you have to like his chances to stay on this heater with a fine finish in the AdventHealth 400.
We are priced out of a top-10 finish play here as oddsmakers have begun to adjust (he's -185 at Lucky Rebel, which is a no-go), but he has good pre-race speed into strong race results at Las Vegas, Martinsville, and Bristol. Look for him to do so again today.
Brad Keselowski to Finish in the Top 10 (+150 at Lucky Rebel)
There aren't a lot of great value options on the board if you are looking specifically for a top-10 finish pick for the AdventHealth 400. The top dozen options are all -150 or shorter, then you get to Keselowski and Joey Logano, who are both at +150.
Keselowski will start in the middle of the pack, but he is a solid option if you want to look outside the race favorites for some value.
Historically, he has an average finish of 13.2 at Kansas Speedway, and while many of his best results there are not recent, he finished eighth in last season's playoff race at the track.
Also, with five consecutive top-15 finishes to his name, I like his chances to be in the mix, especially with his level of experience. Only Kyle Busch (36), Denny Hamlin (35), and Joey Logano (33) have more Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway. Look for that experience to serve him well today.
Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Five (+110 at Lucky Rebel)
Larson, who finished fourth at Bristol, has yet to record consecutive top-five finishes this season.
However, he should not be +110 to finish in the top five when he is seeking an AdventHealth 400 three-peat, has finished second, second, first, and first in his last four starts in this race, and qualified in the top five. Take this without hesitation.
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