NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 Predictions & Picks
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun May 24, 2026, 2:37 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Tragedy rocked the NASCAR world this week with the sudden loss of two-time Cup Series champion Kyle Busch, who died on Thursday at the age of 41. With heavy hearts, his colleagues will take to the track tonight for the longest race on the Cup Series calendar, the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
NASCAR and motorsports in general have a close relationship with tragedy. It comes with the territory. But that does not temper the shock of Thursday's news that Busch had passed away in Charlotte just hours after the release of a statement that he had been hospitalized due to a "severe illness" and would not race this weekend.
Busch, who won Cup Series titles in 2015 and 2019 and amassed a record 234 wins across the Cup Series (63), O'Reilly Auto Parts Series (102), and Truck Series (69), would have made his 763rd Cup Series start in this race. Instead, O'Reilly Auto Parts Series regular Austin Hill will take his place in a renumbered No. 33 car, with Richard Childress Racing electing to suspend use of the No. 8 following Busch's passing.
It will be a somber occasion tonight at Charlotte Motor Speedway, but the show will go on, as it typically does when an active driver passes away on track or off track. And as far as the activity on track goes, everyone will be aiming for a victory in one of NASCAR's biggest races, which Busch won in 2018.
With qualifying rained out, points leader Tyler Reddick will start on pole for the sixth time in 13 races this season. At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, Reddick is one of the top favorites to win, along with Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Larson, three former Coca-Cola 600 winners.
2026 NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 Odds and Probabilities
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
| Denny Hamlin | +400 | 20.00% | 14.27% |
| Tyler Reddick | +500 | 16.67% | 11.89% |
| Christopher Bell | +800 | 11.11% | 7.93% |
| Kyle Larson | +800 | 11.11% | 7.93% |
| William Byron | +1000 | 9.09% | 6.49% |
| Carson Hocevar | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.49% |
| Chase Briscoe | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.49% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.49% |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.49% |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.76% |
| Chris Buescher | +2200 | 4.35% | 3.10% |
| Bubba Wallace | +3000 | 3.23% | 2.30% |
| Ross Chastain | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.10% |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.98% |
| Austin Hill | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.98% |
| Brad Keselowski | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.98% |
| Joey Logano | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.98% |
| Austin Cindric | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.74% |
| Michael McDowell | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.06% |
| Ryan Preece | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.06% |
| Connor Zilisch | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.88% |
| Corey Heim | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.88% |
| Austin Dillon | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.47% |
| Daniel Suarez | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.47% |
| AJ Allmendinger | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.29% |
| Erik Jones | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.29% |
| Josh Berry | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.29% |
| Noah Gragson | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.29% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.29% |
| Zane Smith | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.29% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.24% |
| Riley Herbst | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.20% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.20% |
| Todd Gilliland | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.20% |
| Cole Custer | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% |
| Ty Dillon | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% |
| Cody Ware | +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% |
| Katherine Legge | +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% |
| Timmy Hill | +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% |
2026 Coca-Cola 600 Starting Lineup
| Starting Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 2 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 3 | Shane van Gisbergen (#97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 4 | Michael McDowell (#71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe (#19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 6 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 7 | Chris Buescher (#17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 8 | Austin Cindric (#2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 9 | Austin Dillon (#3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 10 | AJ Allmendinger (#16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 12 | Ryan Preece (#60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 13 | Austin Hill (#33) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 14 | Daniel Suarez (#7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 15 | John Hunter Nemechek (#42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 16 | Chase Elliott (#9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Christopher Bell (#20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 18 | Kyle Larson (#5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Zane Smith (#38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 20 | Todd Gilliland (#34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 21 | Erik Jones (#43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 22 | Cole Custer (#41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 23 | Carson Hocevar (#77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 24 | Bubba Wallace (#23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 25 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 26 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 27 | Ross Chastain (#1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Noah Gragson (#4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 29 | Alex Bowman (#48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 30 | Riley Herbst (#35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 31 | William Byron (#24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 32 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 33 | Joey Logano (#22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 34 | Josh Berry (#21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 35 | Ty Dillon (#10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 36 | Timmy Hill (#66) | Garage 66 (Ford) |
| 37 | Katherine Legge (#78) | Live Fast Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 38 | Cody Ware (#51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 39 | Corey Heim (#67) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
Coca-Cola 600 Predictions and Picks
Austin Hill to Finish in the Top 10 (+400 at Lucky Rebel)
Perhaps this is a sentimental pick, but it would only be right to see Hill land in the top 10 or, better yet, contend for the win.
We will see in due time if this is a one-off start for Hill or if he will move into the car for the remainder of the season, but this will be his 18th Cup Series start for Richard Childress Racing.
His lone top-10 finish in that stretch is a ninth-place finish in last year's Chicago street race, but he is certainly more than capable of holding his own tonight, and no one would begrudge him a strong showing given the circumstances.
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