2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds: Will a Series Shakeup Shape the Title Race?

Just over three months ago, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season concluded with a controversial climax at Phoenix Raceway. Sunday, a new season will commence with the Daytona 500, which will also usher in a new era for the "chase" for the championship.

Through the first 300+ laps of last season's decider in the desert, it appeared that Denny Hamlin was finally going to win a long-awaited Cup Series title. But as he neared the close of a comprehensive championship clincher, fellow contender William Byron triggered a late caution and a chain of events that still sits raw in the minds of many.

Not only did Hamlin's team elect to pit from the lead, but a questionable call was also made to take on four new tires for the overtime restart. He restarted 10^th, while Kyle Larson, who took only two tires, restarted fifth. In the frantic fight to the flag, both improved on those positions, but Larson (third) finished three spots and three points ahead of Hamlin (sixth), who saw everything go wrong at the worst possible time after a weekend of so much going right.

Losing out on the title proved to pale in comparison to the loss that Hamlin suffered shortly before the turn of the year, however. A house fire on December 28 claimed the life of his father, Dennis and severely injured his mother, Mary Lou.

After that incomprehensible tragedy, few would have faulted Hamlin for electing to call time on his career. Instead, he will return for a 21^st Cup Series season, and he enters the season as the championship favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.

Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Saturday, February 14, 2026.

What to Know About the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Season

Out with the Old, In with the (Sort of) New

Since 2004, the NASCAR Cup Series season has been split into two parts, with the final 10 races used to determine the season's champion.

Over the last two decades, that format has evolved. The 2014 season saw the institution of a four-round format that featured eliminations after the Round of 16, Round of 12, and Round of 8, and a season-ending championship race in which the final four contenders fought for the title.

Then, starting in 2017, an extra wrinkle was added to award a regular season championship following the first 26 races and give the regular season champion an added advantage for the playoffs.

That most recent iteration of the championship playoffs (which was in place for all three of NASCAR's top national series), especially with the Next Gen car era beginning in 2022. That began a run of three consecutive Cup Series championships for Team Penske, with Joey Logano claiming two of those titles after producing some pedestrian regular season results.

While that run ended last season, some sort of change seemed inevitable due to mounting discontent from both fans and drivers, even before a wild final weekend at Phoenix.

And change is indeed here. The Chase for the Cup format, which was in place from 2004 to 2013, has returned with some wrinkles that set it apart from the previous Chase format.

How will this new format work? Let's break it down.

How Will the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Be Decided?

• As with the playoffs, 16 drivers will qualify for the Chase after the first 26 races.
• Wins will no longer play a role in granting spots, as the field will be determined solely by the points standings at that 26-race cutoff.
• However, wins will still hold major significance. Drivers will now receive a minimum of 55 points for a race in, up from 40. The allocation of points during races will remain otherwise the same. That includes stage points, another controversial component of the current era of NASCAR.
• Playoff points are no more, but the regular season champion will receive a boost (of 100 points) to begin the Chase, while the drivers who finished second to 15^th will also receive bonus points.
• No eliminations or points resets will take place during the Chase.

Will a Schedule Shakeup Please NASCAR Purists?

In addition to the changes with the championship format, the Cup Series schedule this season also features some notable changes.

The season finale returns to Homestead-Miami Speedway, the site of the season finale from 2002 to 2019.

Also, North Wilkesboro Speedway, which hosted the NASCAR All-Star race from 2023 to 2025, will host the Window World 450 on July 19, the first points race there since 1996.

But what are the biggest changes? The Chicago street race and the Mexico City race will not happen in 2026 (but could return in the future), while the second Charlotte race moves back to the speedway's oval.

While three non-oval races are dropping off, a new one will debut, as Naval Base Coronado in San Diego will host a street course race, the Anduril 250, on June 21.

Including that race, only four non-oval races will take place this season. Circuit of the Americas (the DuraMAX Grand Prix on March 1) remains on the calendar for the sixth straight season, while the longtime stops of Watkins Glen (the Go Bowling at the Glen on May 10) and Sonoma (the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on June 28) also remain.

This should please NASCAR traditionalists, especially as the season's final 18 races will all be on ovals. As such, if SVG is to contend for the championship in 2026, he must find consistent success on ovals, where the road course king logged only one top-10 finish last season.

2026 NASCAR Cup Series Schedule

Who Are the Cup Series Championship Favorites?

While the return to the Chase format, other rule changes, and schedule changes may significantly alter the championship race, the makeup of the contenders is expected to remain the same.

In the Chase/playoffs era, 18 of 22 NASCAR Cup Series titles have gone to drivers on three teams: Hendrick Motorsports (10), Team Penske (five), and Joe Gibbs (three). In that stretch, the only four title winners outside of that trio are Kurt Busch in 2004 (Roush Racing), Tony Stewart in 2011 (Stewart-Haas Racing), Kevin Harvick in 2014 (Stewart-Haas Racing), and Martin Truex Jr. in 2017 (Furniture Row Racing).

Ahead of the new season, it looks likely that this year's champion will also come from one of those three teams.

But with the importance of season-long consistency now magnified due to the return of the Chase format, the door is open for 23XI Racing or Trackhouse Racing to have a say in the outcome. Could Connor Zilisch, the lone full-time rookie this season, make a run at becoming the youngest champion in NASCAR Cup Series history? Expectations are high, but the 19-year-old has shown the temperament to handle the hype to date.

Bet on NASCAR Odds This Season at Lucky Rebel

This season, you can bet on every NASCAR Cup Series race, as well as Cup Series championship odds, at Lucky Rebel.

For NASCAR enthusiasts, Lucky Rebel should sit at the top of their list for wagering on NASCAR odds. For every Cup Series race, Lucky Rebel offers top 3, top 5, and top 10 finishing position odds, as well as a variety of other prop bets.

If you would like to sign up at Lucky Rebel, you can receive a 125% bonus up to $1250 and 50 free spins to use on select slots.

That bonus sets you up well, but sticking with Lucky Rebel for the entire season will also bring some additional boosts. Thanks to the Rebel Rewards program, maintaining regular activity can earn special bonuses and other great rewards, including points perks for logging in, depositing, and wagering.