UFC Vegas 82: Allen vs. Craig Prelims Predictions, Odds & Picks
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Update: Fri Nov 17, 2023, 10:32 am ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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Betting News has been covering UFC Vegas 82 throughout the week and next up is this weekend's preliminary card. While some bettors solely focus on the main attractions, you'd be surprised by what kind of value and bets can be found in the prelim bouts.
There's a lot to keep track of regarding the early betting action, but Betting News has you covered. Continue reading for the UFC Vegas 82 predictions regarding the preliminary card, including the latest odds and top bets.
UFC Vegas 82 Predictions: Prelims Odds & Picks
The UFC Vegas 82 odds listed below are courtesy of Bovada as of Friday, Nov. 17 at 9:09 a.m.
Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito Prediction — Featherweight
- Jonathan Pearce (-130)
- Joanderson Brito (+110)
After tasting defeat in his UFC debut, Jonathan Pearce (14-4) has won five matchups in a row, however, he hasn't fought since last December. Meanwhile, Joanderson Brito (15-3-1) is also on a hot streak, having won three consecutive matchups ahead of Saturday.
In a fight that oddsmakers see going either way, I'm backing Brito. While both fighters have been successful recently, "Tubarao" has been extremely dominant, ending his last three fights before the three-minute mark in the opening round.
As for the best bet, let's say that this fight doesn't complete a full round. Brito's recent fights have ended in a flash while Pearce has a 78.6% finish rate, increasing the probability that this won't last long.
Pearce vs. Brito Prediction: Fight Doesn't Complete 1 Round (+185)
Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson Prediction — Bantamweight
- Chad Anheliger (+168)
- Jose Johnson (-200)
Chad Anheliger (12-6) makes his return after over 14 months, last losing to Heili Alateng (via unanimous decision) at UFC 279. Standing in his way is Jose Johnson (15-8), who was submitted by Da'Mon Blackshear in his debut back in August.
While both men can use a win, Johnson should get the job done. The 28-year-old is not only eight years younger than his opponent, but he's also six inches taller with a seven-inch reach advantage. That's without mentioning how his strikes are more accurate (63% vs. 43%) or how he absorbs about two fewer significant blows per minute.
With victory methods being unavailable for this fight, let's just stick with Johnson winning outright.
Anheliger vs. Johnson Prediction: Johnson Outright (-200)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Denis Tiuliulin Prediction — Middleweight
- Christian Leroy Duncan (-500)
- Denis Tiuliulin (+355)
Christian Leroy Duncan (8-1) heads into the UFC Vegas 82 prelims after losing to Armen Petrosyan (via UD) five months ago. On the other side, Denis Tiuliulin (10-8, 1NC) dropped to 1-3 in his last four fights with a knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues.
While Tilulin's future once looked bright, being finished four times in his last six fights isn't a good look. Duncan, meanwhile, has lost only one fight in his career, proving that he knows how to win. I expect a determined bounce-back showing for the favorite.
Again, betting options are slim for this fight too, let's pick the Under on the 1.5-round total. After all, Tiuliulin hasn't even made it out of the first round in his last two losses.
Duncan vs. Tiuliulin Prediction: Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)
Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado Prediction — Heavyweight
- Mick Parkin (-375)
- Caio Machado (+290)
Mick Parkin (7-0) hopes to continue his undefeated ways at UFC Vegas 82. His prelims opponent is none other than Caio Machado (8-1-1), who's making his debut on the back of a seven-fight winning streak.
Machado has fought well, but he hasn't fought someone on Parkin's level yet. The hard-hitting Englishman has finished all but one of his seven previous opponents, ending four of those fights before the opening frame even ended.
With a high probability of a finish between these heavyweights, don't expect this showdown to go the distance.
Parkin vs. Machado Prediction: Fight Won't Go the Distance (-185)
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UFC Vegas 82 Prelims Predictions Cont.
Jeka Saragih vs. Lucas Alexander Prediction — Featherweight
- Jeka Saragih (+395)
- Lucas Alexander (-550)
This UFC Vegas 82 prelims fight appears to be an uphill battle for Jeka Saragih (13-3), who's coming off a TKO loss to Anshul Jubli back in February. Meanwhile, Lucas Alexander (8-3) just beat Steven Peterson by points earlier this year, improving to 6-1 in his last seven fights.
Saragih's story is impressive, but he hasn't faced UFC-level competition yet. That's without mentioning how he also failed to win the Road to UFC Season 1 Lightweight tournament, which doesn't bode well for his momentum.
Alexander's a tough customer with better striking and defensive numbers than Saragih. I won't be surprised if the duo trade some heavy blows before Alexander ends this in the second round.
Saragih vs. Alexander Prediction: Fight Doesn't Complete 2 Full Rounds (-115)
Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez Prediction — Featherweight
- Lucie Pudilova (+160)
- Ailin Perez (-195)
Lucie Pudilova (14-8) is a streaky fighter and now she's coming off a split-decision loss to Joselyne Edwards in April after the latter missed weight. Meanwhile, Ailin Perez (8-2) most recently picked up her first-ever UFC win, defeating Ashlee Evans-Smith via UD at UFC on ESPN 49.
While I like Perez more and can see her winning, I don't expect her to win with a finish. Pudilova has a durable foe with great cardio, highlighted by 13 of her last 15 fights going the distance.
With that in mind, let's take Perez on the point spread.
Pudilova vs. Perez Prediction: Perez Point Spread (+110)
Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta Prediction — Lightweight
- Trey Ogden (+111)
- Nikolas Motta (-134)
Trey Ogden's (16-6) UFC tenure hasn't gone as planned, dropping to 1-2 in his last three fights with a UD loss to Ignacio Bahamondes in April. Funny enough, Nikolas Motta (13-5) also owns a 1-2 UFC record, most recently getting KO'd by Manuel Torres earlier this year.
I'm not a huge fan of either fighter in this UFC Vegas 82 prelim match, hence why I'm going with a neutral bet. I just don't see this fight going the distance. For starters, each of Motta's last three outings ended before Round 2 was even over.
Secondly, there was a finish in four of Ogden's seven previous outings. Putting two and two together, I just can't see this fight reaching the time limit.
Ogden vs. Motta Prediction: Fight Won't Go the Distance (-130)
Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam Prediction — Flyweight
- Charles Johnson (+120)
- Rafael Estevam (-145)
The UFC Vegas 82 prelims preview rounds out with this flyweight bout. Charles Johnson (13-5) is in danger of losing three straight fights for the first time in his career while Rafael Estevam (11-0) has yet to experience defeat in his eight-year MMA career.
With Johnson looking out of place in the UFC, I predict that Estevam will win on Saturday. The 27-year-old Brazilian is as dangerous as they come, boasting a 70% finish rate in his last 10 fights.
With the way that the underdog's career has been trending, I won't be surprised if Estevam emerges victorious inside the distance.
Johnson vs. Estevam Prediction: Estevam Inside the Distance (+350)
UFC Vegas 82 Preview FAQ
When is UFC Vegas 82?
- UFC Vegas 82 will take place on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023.
Where is UFC Vegas 82?
- UFC Vegas 82 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
What time does UFC Vegas 82 start?
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 5 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC Vegas 82?
- Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+
- Main Card Channel: ESPN
How can I bet on UFC Vegas 82?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Vegas 82 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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