Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya 2 Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC 287: Will History Repeat Itself in Miami?

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya 2 Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC 287: Will History Repeat Itself in Miami? cover


UFC 287 is just days away, bringing a thrilling card to MMA enthusiasts across the globe. While there’ll be something for everyone this Saturday night, a large portion of fans is tuning in for the rematch between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya for the UFC Middleweight Championship.

Pereira and Adesanya previously collided in the octagon back in November. Adesanya walked into UFC 281 as the middleweight champion, but a fifth-round TKO victory for Pereira saw him pick up the gold for the first time in his career. Fans have been waiting for this rematch for nearly five months, leaving time to tell whether or not history repeats itself.

As with all massive pay-per-view main events, Pereira vs Adesanya 2 brings some interesting betting options to the table. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the UFC 287 main event from a handful of reputable sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.

Pereira vs Adesanya 2 — Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira (c) — Israel Adesanya

  • Record: 7-1 — 23-2
  • Height: 6’4” — 6’4”
  • Reach: 79” — 80”
  • Weight: 185lbs — 185lbs
  • Age: 35 — 33
  • Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Switch
  • Knockouts: 6 — 15

UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2 Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, April 5)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

  • Alex Pereira +114
  • Israel Adesanya -146

Bovada Sportsbook

  • Alex Pereira +120
  • Israel Adesanya -140


  • Alex Pereira +115
  • Israel Adesanya -143


  • Alex Pereira +115
  • Israel Adesanya -140

Oddsmakers Slightly Favor Adesanya Over Pereira

Even though Pereira will walk into UFC 287 as the defending middleweight champion, it’s Adesanya who’s the odds-on favorite. “The Last Stylebender” is available at an average of -142 odds across the four highlighted sportsbooks, carrying an implied win probability of 58.7%.

It’s important to remember that Adesanya had only lost once before being knocked out by Pereira. The ex-UFC Middleweight Champion was on a three-fight winning streak ahead of that loss, having defeated the likes of Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier.

In fact, that three-fight winning streak began following Adesanya’s first-ever defeat — a unanimous decision loss to Jan Błachowicz in an unsuccessful bid for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. If that bounce-back performance is any indication, it’s that Adesanya is going to do everything he can to exact revenge on Pereira.

Having said that, Pereira shouldn’t be underestimated at all. Not only is he the defending champion, but he’s also won seven straight fights. He’s a perfect 4-0 since joining the UFC, having won three of those outings by knockout.

The 35-year-old Brazilian is also in search of his fourth combat sports victory over Adesanya. After all, their fight at UFC 281 wasn’t the first time that the duo met.

Pereira and Adesanya have also squared off twice in a kickboxing setting for Glory of Heroes. Pereira picked up a unanimous decision victory when they first met in 2016 before tallying a third-round knockout win over Adesanya in 2017.

In other words, it looks like Pereira has Adesanya’s number. Whether he can make it a fourth straight victory over the Auckland, New Zealand native remains to be seen.

UFC 287 Betting Markets & Trends for Pereira vs Adesanya 2

Even though betting on the moneyline for a big fight can be fun, there are other markets that provide more value. Fortunately, we’ve gathered a handful of Pereira vs Adesanya 2 markets that are worth exploring, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.

For starters, BetOnline lists the likeliest method of victory as Adesanya winning by points at +170 odds. It isn’t too shocking considering that nine of his last 13 fights have gone the distance and he picked up the win on eight of those occasions.

Meanwhile, Pereira’s top victory method is to win by KO/TKO at +220. The veteran combatant’s TKO win over Adesanya was the sixth time in his MMA career that he knocked his opponent out. He also racked up 21 knockout victories in 40 kickboxing contests.

Despite favoring Adesanya to win by points, BetOnline Sportsbook projects that this fight won’t go the distance at -128 odds.

If this fight doesn’t go the distance, Pereira is favored to win by first-round knockout at +1000 odds, as far as method & round combo betting goes. Having said that, only three of his previous six KO/TKO victories occurred in Round 1.

When it comes to this market, Adesanya’s top option is also to win by first-round knockout, albeit at +1600 odds. Of his 15 previous knockout wins, seven took place in the opening frame. Unfortunately, he hasn’t accomplished the feat since November 2018.

Pereira vs Adesanya 2 UFC 287 Fight Prediction

Even though Adesanya has all the tools in the world to bounce back at UFC 287, I predict that Pereira will retain after another lengthy bout. I can’t imagine the new champion losing on his first defense and there’s a good chance that he’ll be in the challenger’s head. While I don’t see another knockout win in the cards, I do see Pereira outlasting Adesanya in Miami.

As far as the best bet goes, I recommend backing the fight to go the distance at +102 odds on BetOnline Sportsbook. Pereira and Adesanya were only three minutes away from reaching the time limit in their last fight. Considering how the majority of the challenger’s recent fights have gone the distance and the fact that he’s favored to win by points, it’s clear that backing a longer fight is the right call.

UFC 287 Event Details

When is UFC 287?

UFC 287 will take place on Saturday, April 8, 2023.

Where is UFC 287?

UFC 287 will take place at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida.

What time does UFC 287 start?

  • UFC 287 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
  • UFC 287 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC 287’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 287?

The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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