Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill UFC Betting: Back Hill to Win UFC Vegas 59 Main Event

Devon Platana

The stars of the UFC return to the Apex in Enterprise, Nevada on Saturday, Aug. 6 for UFC Vegas 59. It’s going to be a night filled with several intriguing fights that MMA fans won’t want to miss, including the light heavyweight main event between Thiago Santos (22-10) and Jamahal Hill (10-1, 1 NC).

Both men enter this fight as top-10 fighters in the UFC’s light heavyweight division, with Santos sitting at No. 6 while Hill occupies the No. 10 spot. A victory for either fighter will bring them one step closer to a potential championship opportunity.

Though fights can be unpredictable, the latest betting odds from various sportsbooks help shed some light on who could walk out of UFC Vegas 59 with the victory.

Here’s a look at the latest Santos vs. Hill odds, as well as a prediction for the upcoming main event.

UFC Vegas 59: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Fight Odds (as of Friday, Aug. 5)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Thiago Santos +230
  • Jamahal Hill -310

Caesars Sportsbook

  • Thiago Santos +250
  • Jamahal Hill -310

BetRivers

  • Thiago Santos +235
  • Jamahal Hill -305

BetMGM

  • Thiago Santos +260
  • Jamahal Hill -350

Hill Enters UFC Vegas 59 as Heavy Favorite

A simple look at the above odds highlights how Hill is the odds-on favorite across the board. In fact, the shortest odds that he has across the four sportsbooks — -350 on BetMGM — translates to an implied probability of 77.8%.

It’s hard to argue with the oddsmakers on this one. Hill has only lost one fight in his entire career, after all, and has won three of his last four fights.

Since suffering a TKO loss to Paul Craig at UFC 263, Hill has been clawing his way back up the rankings. He’s earned back-to-back first-round KO victories over Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker in his last two outings, taking home ‘Performance of the Night’ honors in both of those bouts.

Can Thiago Santos overcome Jamahal Hill at UFC Vegas 59?

Unfortunately, life hasn’t gone that well for Santos as of late. After beginning his career with a 21-6 record, the 38-year-old Brazilian has lost four of his last five fights. It all started when he failed to defeat Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship back in July 2019 and he hasn’t been able to turn things around since.

A trio of Santos’ last four losses have come by decision, with each of his last three outings have gone the distance. It’ll be interesting to see if that trend continues this Saturday.

Though Santos is known for his striking abilities, he’s only averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute on 47% accuracy compared to Hill’s 7.06 strikes on 51% accuracy. Santos does have better defense, however, it’s clear that he’s in for a physical night.

Regardless, this fight should be an entertaining one and whoever emerges as the winner will be better because of the experience.

UFC Vegas 59 Betting Markets & Trends for Santos vs. Hill

Though some MMA bettors may stick to wagering on the moneyline, FanDuel Sportsbook offers a few other markets that point to how Santos vs. Hill could play out at the Apex.

The favored method of victory is for Hill to win by KO/TKO at -140 odds. The 31-year-old Chicago native is 6-1 when it comes to his fights ending by knockout, with that sole loss coming against Craig. While Santos has 15 knockout victories to his name, he’s also been knocked out three times.

Speaking of Santos, his favored method of victory is also to win by KO/TKO, however, his odds sit at +460.

FanDuel seems to be on board with an early finish for the fight considering that the sportsbook is favoring a world where the main event doesn’t go the distance at -450 odds.

When it comes to method and round combo betting, Hill is favored to end the fight by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +250. Four of his last five fights have ended in the first round via knockout, leaving this as a real possibility.

Santos vs. Hill Fight Prediction

Though both fighters have accomplished a lot throughout their respective careers, Santos is no longer in his prime, which is why I’m going with Hill to leave as the UFC Vegas 59 main event winner.

Hill has fought too well lately and I think the writing is on the wall for Santos. Having said that, the best bet here would be to take Santos winning by knockout in Round 1 at +250 on FanDuel. I think he’s determined for a big win and he’ll look to end it early against Santos since a longer fight favours the latter.

UFC Vegas 59 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 59?

UFC Vegas 59 will take place on Saturday, Aug. 6, 2022.

Where is UFC Vegas 59?

UFC Vegas 59 will take place at the Apex in Enterprise, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 59 start?

  • UFC Vegas 59 Prelims Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC Vegas 59’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 59?

The prelims will be available on ESPN and EPSN+, while the main card will be available on ESPN and ESPN+ as well.