Saint-Denis vs Moises Prediction & Picks for UFC Paris: “God of War” Prevails

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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Saint-Denis vs Moises prediction & picks for UFC Paris


Betting News has spent the last few days analyzing the biggest matchups at UFC Paris. Another main card bout worth keeping an eye on is the lightweight matchup between France’s Benoit Saint-Denis and the streak Thiago Moises.

It’s going to be an exciting fight between two men looking to extend their winning ways. Considering how neither fighter is ranked at the moment, this matchup’s result will likely have a big impact on Saint-Denis and Moises’ careers.

If you’re looking to get in on some betting action, we’ve got you covered. Keep reading for the latest Saint-Denis vs Moises odds, as well as the best betting options for the UFC Paris fight.

Saint-Denis vs Moises Odds

Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Aug. 31 at 8:45 a.m. ET.


  • Benoit Saint-Denis (-145)
  • Thiago Moises (+125)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes (+120)
  • No (-150)

Round Total

  • Over 2.5 Rounds (-101)
  • Under 2.5 Rounds (-129)

Saint-Denis vs Moises Tale of the Tape

Benoit Saint-Denis — Thiago Moises

  • Record: 11-1, 1NC — 17-6
  • Height: 5’11” — 5’9”
  • Reach: 73” — 70”
  • Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
  • Age: 27 — 28
  • Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
  • Knockouts: 2 — 3

Saint-Denis vs Moises Preview UFC Paris

This lightweight bout looks like it could go either way at UFC. Although Saint-Denis is the hometown favorite, his -145 moneyline odds on BetOnline carry an implied win probability of just 59.2%.

It’s hard not to be impressed by Saint-Denis every time he steps into the octagon. The 27-year-old is one of the most dangerous up-and-coming lightweights today, backed by a 100% finish percentage in his 11 career victories.

Although his UFC run began with a loss, Saint-Denis has battled back with three consecutive wins ahead of this fight. One of those victories includes when he TKO’d Gabriel Miranda last September, becoming the first French UFC fighter to win in France.

Nevertheless, Saint-Denis will have his hands full with Moises, who’s fought to a 5-2 record in his last seven fights.

Moises now heads into UFC Paris looking for his third straight victory. After being. finished in back-to-back fights in the second half of 2021, the Brazilian combatant notched consecutive submission wins over Christos Giagos and Melquizael Costa.

It’s going to be interesting to see what version of Moises appears this weekend. Most of his recent success has come at the Apex in Las Vegas, whereas he’s just 3-2 in his last five fights outside of Sin City.

Both men are tremendous grapplers, but Saint-Denis’ numbers are more impressive. He averages 3.8 takedowns and 1.9 submissions per 15 minutes with an 85% takedown defense rate.

While Moises also knows how to wrestle well, he averages 1.53 takedowns, 1.3 submissions, and a 60% takedown defense rate.

As far as striking goes, Saint-Denis boasts the superior offense, landing 4.11 significant strikes per minute (vs. 2.47) with 50% accuracy (vs. 39%). On the flip side, Moises absorbs a lot fewer blows per minute (3.90 vs. 6.14).

UFC Paris: Saint-Denis vs Moises Betting Trends and Markets

There’s some decent value to be had on the Saint-Denis vs Moises moneyline, however, some bettors crave the chance to win more. The good news is that BetOnline has you covered with a wide array of betting markets ahead of Saturday’s action.

The method of victory prop market is always a popular one at UFC events. Here, Saint-Denis is favored to win by points at +225 odds. This likely has to do with the grappling background of both fighters as it makes it less likely to see a finish tonight.

Having said that, Saint-Denis has only gone the distance once in his career, losing to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via unanimous decision at UFC 267.

At the same time, BetOnline is favoring that this bout won’t go the distance at -150 odds. In Saint-Denis and Moises’ 36 combined fights, only 11 have gone the distance (30.6%).

Saint-Denis vs Moises prediction & picks for UFC Paris
Will Benoit Saint-Denis need to go the distance to defeat Thiago Moises this weekend?

If you aren’t siding with the favorite, Moises’ top victory method is a win by points, too (+350). Although he’s 3-1 in his last four fights that went the distance, he hasn’t won by decision since February 2021.

If the fight ends inside of the distance, Saint-Denis is the heavy favorite at -220 odds. It isn’t too surprising given his impressive finishing ability, as well as the fact that Moises has been finished twice in his last four fights.

If you’re looking to pinpoint when and how this fight ends, BetOnline has Saint-Denis winning by first-round knockout (+600). It’s a bit surprising considering that neither of his two career KO/TKO victories came in the opening frame.

Saint-Denis vs Moises Prediction & Picks for UFC Paris

I’m taking Saint-Denis to continue his winning streak at UFC Paris. As talented as Moises is, the “God of War” is a dangerous finisher with the French crowd on his side. Throw his superior striking offense and grappling numbers, and it isn’t hard to like Saint-Denis this weekend.

As far as the best bet goes, let’s ride with Saint-Denis winning by submission (+525). While it seems like a long shot, it’s important to remember that Moises has been finished twice since July 2021 and has shown that he can be out-grappled.

With how good Saint-Denis looked the last time he fought in France, I see another finish on the horizon. Having said that, if you aren’t feeling as confident as I do, an outright Saint-Denis victory also works.


When is UFC Paris?

UFC Paris will take place on Saturday, September 2, 2023.

Where is UFC Paris?

UFC Paris will take place at Accor Arena in Paris, France.

What time does UFC Paris start?

  • UFC Paris Preliminary Card Start Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC Paris’ Main Card: 3 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Paris?

The UFC Paris main and preliminary cards can both be viewed on ESPN+.

How can I bet on UFC Paris?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Paris odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts:

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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