Holly Holm vs Yana Santos UFC on ESPN 43 Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks: What Does Holm Have Left in the Tank?

Devon Platana

Fri Mar 24 2023

Holly Holm vs Yana Santos UFC on ESPN 43 Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks: What Does Holm Have Left in the Tank? cover

UFC on ESPN 43 is just over 24 hours away, featuring a card that’s jam-packed with quality MMA matchups. One fight that many MMA enthusiasts have their eyes on is the women’s bantamweight co-main event between former UFC Bantamweight Champion Holly Holm (14-6) and former featherweight title challenger Yana Santos (14-6, 1NC).

Holm heads into the weekend as the No. 3 fighter in the bantamweight division. Meanwhile, Santos isn’t too far behind her at the No. 6 spot. A victory for either woman would bring them one step closer to a crack at Amanda Nunes’ gold.

There’s no shortage of Holm vs Santos betting markets ahead of UFC on ESPN 43. The good news is that Betting News has you covered. Here’s a look at the bantamweight main event’s latest odds from several sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet to make.

Holly Holm vs. Yana Santos — Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm — Yana Santos

  • Record: 14-6 — 14-6, 1NC
  • Height: 5’8” — 5’8”
  • Reach: 70” — 68.5”
  • Weight: 135lbs — 135lbs
  • Age: 41 — 33
  • Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
  • Knockouts: 8 — 7

UFC on ESPN 43: Holm vs Santos Fight Odds (as of Friday, March 24)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Holly Holm -250
  • Yana Santos +198

Caesars Sportsbook

  • Holly Holm -240
  • Yana Santos +200


  • Holly Holm -250
  • Yana Santos +200


  • Holly Holm -250
  • Yana Santos +200

Holm vs Santos Fight Preview

Holm heads into UFC on ESPN 43 as the unanimous favorite across all four highlighted sportsbooks. Her odds are similar on each source, averaging out to -248 odds — an implied winning probability of 71.3%.

After nearly two years away from the octagon, Holm made her MMA return at UFC Vegas 55. Unfortunately, the fight didn’t end as planned. Holm went the distance with Ketlen Vieira, only to lose by split decision. Although it wasn’t the result that she wanted, the 41-year-old veteran proved that she could still hang in today’s UFC.

Having said that, it’s been almost a year since that loss and Holm isn’t getting any younger. She may not have many more opportunities to come this close to getting a title shot, so I expect her to do everything she can to defeat Santos.

Meanwhile, Santos has been having a solid run since returning to the bantamweight division. The former Invicta FC Bantamweight Champion has gone 4-2 over six fights since being knocked out by Cris Cyborg in her UFC debut.

Each of Santos’ four victories has come by unanimous decision over that span. Although she hasn’t exactly been beating the greatest competition over that stretch, she did do something that Holm couldn’t — defeat Vieira at UFC Vegas 19.

Santos also averages more significant strikes per minute (4.28) with better accuracy (56%) than Holm does. The former also averages 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, which will help tire her opponent down the longer the fight goes.

The odds might not be in her favor, but a victory here for Santos would be the biggest win of her career. Holm may no longer be in her prime, but she still has name value. Sometimes, that’s enough motivation to pull off an upset.

Nevertheless, Holm vs Santos will be a treat to watch for MMA fans and bettors alike.

Holm vs Santos Betting Markets & Trends for UFC on ESPN 43

There isn’t much value behind moneyline betting here unless you’re banking on an upset. Fortunately, FanDuel Sportsbook has other Holm vs Santos markets that might be more attractive.

Under the method of victory market, Holm is favored to win by points at -110 odds. This isn’t a shock considering how six of her 14 career wins have come by some form of decision — including each of her last three victories. In fact, she hasn’t won by knockout since June 2017.

If Santos manages to pull off the upset, FanDuel says it’ll most likely be by points at +360. Again, she’s only won in the UFC by going the distance. On top of that, five of her last eight fights have reached the time limit.

Speaking of which, the sportsbook also favors that this fight will go the distance at -235 odds.

Method & round combo betting offers even more value if you want a riskier bet. If that’s the case, Holm is favored to win by first-round KO/TKO (+900). Of her eight career knockout wins, none have come in Round 1.

As for Santos, her top victory method here is also to win by KO/TKO in Round 1, albeit at +2000 odds. While she does have six first-round knockout victories to her name, none of them came inside a UFC octagon.

Holm vs Santos UFC on ESPN 43 Fight Prediction

Although Santos has youth on her side, I’m going with Holm here. “The Preacher’s Daughter” still must prove that she has something left in the tank, but she’s going up against an opponent who’s been knocked out three times in seven UFC fights. Holm has proven that she can finish her opponents and if Santos doesn’t act quickly, her night could be over in a flash.

As fun as a knockout win would be, though, I’m going with Holm by points at -110 odds on FanDuel. After all, seven of her last nine fights have gone the distance while five of Santos’ last eight have done the same. Until Holm can prove that she still has some knockout ability, winning by points is the right call.

UFC on ESPN 43 Event Details

When is UFC on ESPN 43?

UFC on ESPN 43 will take place on Saturday, March 25, 2023.

Where is UFC on ESPN 43?

UFC on ESPN 43 will take place at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.

What time does UFC on ESPN 43 start?

  • UFC on ESPN 43 Prelims Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC on ESPN 43’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC on ESPN 43?

Both the preliminary and main cards will be available on ESPN and ESPN +.

Other UFC on ESPN 43 Stories on Betting News

Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.