Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | UFC on ESPN 52: Can Dariush Shock the World?

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is just over 48 hours away from taking over Austin, TX for UFC on ESPN 52. Saturday night's card is jam-packed with exciting matchups, including the lightweight main event between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan.

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— UFC (@ufc) November 29, 2023

It'll be interesting to see if a victory brings either combatant one step closer to a lightweight title opportunity. As it stands, Dariush is the No. 4-ranked lightweight in the UFC while Tsarukyan comes in at No. 8.

If you're looking to bet on the UFC Austin main event, you've come to the right place. Keep scrolling to check out my Dariush vs Tsarukyan prediction and best bets, as well as everything else you need to know ahead of Saturday night.

UFC Austin: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Betting Odds

UFC on ESPN 52 odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Saturday, Dec. 2 at 5:44 p.m. ET.

Dariush vs Tsarukyan Moneyline

• Beneil Dariush (+240)
• Arman Tsarukyan (-295)

Will Dariush vs Tsarukyan Go the Distance?

• Yes (+125)
• No (-168)

Dariush vs Tsarukyan Round Total

• Over 3.5 Rounds (-125)
• Under 3.5 Rounds (-105)

Dariush vs Tsarukyan Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush — Arman Tsarukyan

• Record: 22-5-1 — 20-3
• Height: 5'10" — 5'7"
• Reach: 72" — 72"
• Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
• Age: 34 — 27
• Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 5 — 8

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UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Fight Preview

While some MMA fights can go either way, it doesn't seem like odds makers feel that way about the UFC Austin main event. Bovada is favoring Tsarukyan to emerge victorious at -295 odds, which carries an implied win probability of 74.7%.

Since losing his UFC debut, Tsarukyan has been near-unstoppable. The 27-year-old Georgian fighter is 7-1 in the next eight fights, which includes 'performance of the night' honors twice. While four of those wins came via points, he also picked up TKO wins over Joaquim Silva, Joel Alvarez, and Christos Giagos during that stretch.

And although he averages a respectable 3.82 significant strikes per minute with 48%, Tsaurkyan's grappling is mostly what he uses to wear his opponents down. He averages 3.43 takedowns per minute — nearly twice as many as Dariush (1.91) — with a 75% defense rate.

But let's not act like Dariush is some slouch.

After all, the former RITC Lightweight Champion was on an eight-fight winning streak at one point, overcoming the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Tony Ferguson, and Drew Dober. Unfortunately, that run ended with a first-round TKO loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 289.

Still, it's worth noting that Dariush has yet to lose back-to-back outings in his career. In fact, he thrives in the underdog role, pulling off six upsets in the last seven fights where the odds weren't in his favor.

On the flip side, Tsarukyan is 6-1 as the favorite since joining the UFC.

Regardless of who the odds favor, it looks like we're in for an exciting Fight Night in Austin this weekend.

UFC Austin: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Props & Betting Trends

While the moneyline is a good indicator of who'll likely win, it doesn't reveal the whole story of a fight. Fortunately, BetOnline's Dariush vs. Tsarukyan prop markets shed some light on how the fight could unfold.

For starters, I first noticed that BetOnline favors that the fight won't go the distance (-170). That isn't too surprising given that five of Dariush's last eight fights ended with a finish while only two of Tsarukyan's most recent five went the distance.

With that in mind, it isn't too surprising to see Tsarukyan favored to win by KO/TKO at +125 odds. Three of his last four wins came via TKO, giving him eight knockouts in his career.

If you want to get even more specific, Tsarukyan is favored to land that knockout blow in Round 1 (+475) — something he's done five times in his career. Additionally, three of Dariush's five career losses came via KO/TKO in the opening frame.

Meanwhile, Dariush's top victory method is to win by points at +550 odds. The 34-year-old veteran has gone the distance nine times throughout his 14-year career, emerging victorious each time.

UFC Austin: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Prediction & Best Bet

I won't be surprised if Dariush pulls off the upset this weekend. Quite frankly, the moneyline odds are disrespectful considering the opponents that Dariush has beaten, whereas Tsarukyan is coming off a victory over Joaquim Silva, who's now lost four of his last six fights.

Dariush has better striking and takedown defense than Tsarukyan, putting him in a good spot to survive the five-round showdown. The favorite might still win in the end, but I can't ignore the value that comes with an upset in Austin.

Dariush vs Tsarukyan Prediction: Dariush wins

Dariush vs Tsarukyan Best Bet: Dariush ML (+240) or via Points (+550)

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UFC Austin Preview FAQ

When is UFC Austin?

• UFC Austin will take place on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023.

Where is UFC on ESPN 52?

• UFC on ESPN 52 will take place at the Moody Center in Austin, TX

What time does UFC Fight Night start?

• UFC Fight Night Preliminary Card Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
• UFC Fight Night Main Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Austin?

• UFC Austin Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+
• UFC Austin Main Card Channel: ESPN, ESPN+

How can I bet on UFC Fight Night?

• All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Fight Night odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.