Amanda Lemos vs. Michelle Waterson UFC Betting: Is the value with the underdog?

Frank Monkhouse

In the co-main event at Saturday’s UFC on ABC 3 event at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, spectators and viewers will be treated to a strawweight showdown between Amanda Lemos and Michelle Waterson.

Who will claim the win in this matchup? Lemos is the favourite, but Waterson is a capable fighter with the potential to upset the odds.

Amanda Lemos vs. Michelle Waterson Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Michelle Waterson is a professional MMA fighter and model who was once ranked number one by the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
  • Amanda Lemos is a Brazilian fighter who is 35 years old and sits outside the top 10 fighters at strawweight, placed 11thon the list.
  • Both fighters are coming in on the back of a loss meaning the pressure is on Lemos and Waterson to get the victory needed to nudge their career back on track.
  • Venue & Location: UBS Arena (Elmont, New York)
  • Start Time: approximately 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Amanda Lemos vs. Michelle Waterson Betting Odds

Odds are from Caesars Sportsbook

Moneyline

  • Amanda Lemos -360
  • Michelle Waterson +260

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes -200
  • No +152

Lemos looks to move up the UFC rankings

Lemos hails from Belem in Brazil, where she fights out of the Marajo Brothers camp and has enjoyed plenty of success as an MMA professional. Amanda is currently the UFC’s 11th-ranked strawweight but will move into the top 10 with a favourable result on Saturday.

Lemos brings a professional MMA record of 11 wins against two defeats, with seven of those wins coming by way of knockout, two by submission and the other couple on points.

The two losses on her card are split between one KO and a submission, meaning she is unbeaten on points, and that’s hardly surprising given her judge-friendly style of fighting.

In her last fight, Amanda went down via submission to Jessica Andrade in April in Las Vegas. The eventual winner was always expected to come away with the right result, but it was still Lemos’s first defeat in almost five years.

How will Lemos respond? Amanda is a progressive fighter who survives on confidence, but she must show a strength of character that we’ve not seen from her before.

Lemos did lose last time, but that was her only defeat in six bouts, having won the previous five in style.

She scored a submission win over Miranda Granger, won on points against Mizuki Inoue, stopped Livia Renata Souza and Montserrat Ruiz in round one and got the nod on points over Angela Hill. Only one of her last four have gone the distance.

The underdog is an eye-catching fighter

Waterson is a gladiator when in the octagon, using her background in karate, kickboxing and MMA to out-skill and out-muscle her opponents.

She heads into this fight with a professional MMA record of 18 wins against nine defeats, with most victories by submission on nine, six by decision and three by knockout.

Her losses are divided into five on points, three by submission and just the one KO with that coming back in April 2009.

But her form doesn’t tell the whole story, and while Amanda may have the edge, Michelle is more than capable of winning this fight.

Waterson has been mixing it in excellent company, going up against champions, former champions and high-ranking fighters, making that losing streak a little easier to swallow.

Her defeats weren’t crushing either, which shows she belongs in that company, and if she has learned the lessons of those defeats, she will come back stronger.

It’s not often we find ourselves going against the traders, but on this occasion, we believe that traders have overlooked Waterson a little too quickly.

Amanda Lemos vs. Michelle Waterson Betting Tip: Waterson to win (+260 at FanDuel)

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Frank Monkhouse
Frank Monkhouse