I am still trying to figure out what a "Zebby" is after the Yankees exploded for nine runs on the Twins right hander last night. I am running this play back for the third day in a row, and the reason is simple: Taj Bradley. He is nearly an autoplay whenever he takes the mound. The former Ray has only ever shown flashes of dominance at Tropicana Field, and that is not a factor this season.
Fade Taj Bradley
Bradley enters tonight with a 4.88 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. His overall splits are similar, but his home performance has been worse. He carries a 5.29 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his home park, with opponents generating a .267 xBA, .442 xSLG, and .323 xwOBA.
On top of that, Bradley ranks among the lowest-rated pitchers on Batter-Box. His matchup ISO, wOBA, and hard contact percentage all grade poorly. Opposing hitters have made over 40 percent hard contact against the young starter this season.
His last five starts illustrate a pitcher still searching for consistency. Over that span, he has a 7.43 ERA, 5.02 xERA, and 4.65 xFIP, while hitters have posted a .279 xBA, .519 xSLG, and .362 xwOBA. Three of those outings came against the White Sox, who managed at least three runs in each meeting.
Since joining the Twins, Bradley has made four starts, throwing 21.1 innings and allowing 15 runs on 22 hits. That damage came against some of the weakest offenses in baseball-two starts versus the White Sox, one against the Angels, and one against the Padres, where his only blemish was a solo home run.
Can the bats stay hot?
The Yankees are still fighting to get hot before October. They looked electric last night with ten early runs, but nearly let the Twins come back and steal it 10-9. That cannot happen moving forward. Tonight presents another chance for the offense to erupt against a familiar arm. The Yankees as a team have 56 career at-bats against Bradley.
This matchup sets up perfectly for the Yankees to keep rolling. Their lineup is seeing the ball well, they have recent momentum, and they now face a pitcher who has struggled mightily against far lesser opponents. Bradley has shown little command or consistency, and the Yankees' familiarity with him only tilts the scales further.
If New York wants to establish confidence heading into the postseason, these are the games they must dominate. Look for the bats to stay aggressive early and apply pressure throughout, as this feels like another opportunity for the Yankees to pile on runs.
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105) odds via BetOnline
