It is time to play my favorite game: fading pitchers I do not respect. Today, we are fading Carlos Rodon, who appears to be in a bounce-back spot where he could shove and get the New York Yankees back to their winning ways. Except, I do not respect his arm and believe the Rangers can sneak at least two runs past the southpaw this afternoon.
Rodon has had a very serviceable season, but the wheels are starting to wobble. Over his last three road outings, he owns a 7.36 ERA, 5.43 xERA, nearly a 20% walk rate, and is giving up 60% hard contact. Opposing hitters during that stretch have a .432 xSLG and a .374 xwOBA.
Rodon vs. Rangers
Texas has three elite rated hitters on Batters-Box this afternoon, all of whom are right-handed. In Rodon's last 30 plate appearances against righties, they are crushing him. He owns an 8.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a 43% hard-hit rate. Righties have a .319 xBA, .740 xSLG, and .323 xwOBA against him in that stretch.
Batters-Box also lists Rodon as one of the worst-rated pitchers on the slate. He has allowed nearly 40% hard contact across his last 374 innings and carries a very low ground ball rate—exactly what we want. We want elevated balls from the Rangers.
In their last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, four Rangers hitters own a batting average of .250 or better. Four have an OPS above .737, and four have a wOBA above .334. This lineup matches up well with Rodon's pitch mix, which is led by his fastball (41% usage).
We are asking for two runs at -125 against a pitcher allowing 2.8 runs per road start this season. He has allowed more than this prop in four consecutive road outings. Pay the juice. It is worth it.
