The misprice of the day comes from a game up north in Toronto, where the Yankees take on the red-hot Blue Jays. AL MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge's hit prop is sitting at -160 against right-hander Max Scherzer. Yes, one dollar and sixty cents for a hit from the best right-handed hitter of this generation. A DOLLAR SIXTY. Judge can go 0-for-4 with four strikeouts and this would still be the right play. You can take his bases at plus money, or HRR, but to just play the floor? This is an auto play.
The Yankee captain owns the highest rating today on Batters-Box. In 278 elite ratings over the last three seasons, he has recorded a hit nearly 70% of the time. On the road, in 116 elite ratings, that number jumps to 74%. For the home run lovers, he has hit one in 31% of those games. He has recorded a hit in seven of his last 10 elite ratings on the road.
Judge vs. Scherzer
Max Scherzer owns the worst pitcher rating of the day among all starters eligible for current season ratings. He has poorly-rated matchup metrics in wOBA, ISO, hard contact percentage, and ground ball percentage. The veteran right-hander is allowing nearly 41% hard contact to opposing hitters this season.
At home, right-handed hitters have been feasting off him—batting .333 with a .524 SLG and .405 wOBA. Three of his five pitches are rated below league average, making up about 35% of his arsenal. His best pitch, the cutter, is thrown 18% of the time. Judge is hitting .538 against cutters this season, with a 1.896 OPS and 382 wRC+. On the road against right-handed pitching, he owns a .376 average, 1.137 OPS, and 210 wRC+.
Like I said at the top, he could go 0-for-4 tonight and I would still be glad to have a Judge hit ticket at -160. This is a misprice. The best hitter in baseball should never be priced this low.
Best Bet: Aaron Judge to Record a Hit (-160) odds via BetOnline
