He hooked us on Monday, but I think this is the day he explodes. Yes, it is Jonathan Aranda of the Rays. I love being on this guy, as he is one of Tampa Bay's most consistent hitters. Owning a .316 average and .872 OPS, he has been amazing this season—especially at home, where he is batting .322 with a .518 SLG and .914 OPS. It only gets better, because he is killing right-handed pitchers at home with a .385 average, .991 OPS, and 177 wRC+.
The first baseman enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he has some solid trends. In 28 elite ratings, he has recorded a hit 64% of the time, singled 53% (for those hit parlay people), gone over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI prop 53%, and over this bases prop just 35%. Not the greatest trend on the bases, and with his HRR priced at $1.45, I am not paying for that—especially when I think he is due for an explosive evening.
Cannon vs. Aranda
He takes on White Sox right-hander Jonathan Cannon. It is a good old-fashioned Jonathan vs. Jonathan face-off. Cannon enters today with a poor pitcher rating on Batters-Box's current season ratings. He also owns a poorly-rated matchup in wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He is allowing nearly 37% hard contact to opposing hitters this season.
On the road against left-handed hitters, he has been getting shelled. They are hitting .314 with a .500 SLG and .373 wOBA. Four of Cannon's five pitches are valued below league average, per FanGraphs. His best pitch is his cutter, which he throws 26% of the time. It is barely above league average, but luckily for us, Aranda has strong numbers against cutters—owning a .250 average, .833 OPS, and 144 wRC+ this season.
With back-to-back games with a single and no extra-base hit since July 11, I think tonight is a great time to back the Rays' young stud.
Best Bet: Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
