Royals vs Phillies: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (August 4)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Aug 04, 2023, 1:13 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Royals are in Philadelphia taking on the Phillies for a three game weekend series. Kansas City has not played in Philly since 2016, and these two squads haven't even see each other since 2019 at Kauffman Stadium.
Plain and simple, the Royals suck.
Kansas City is 35-75 overall and haven't even won 15 away games this year. They are currently 14-39 on the road, and after tonight's game, they could very well be the worst away team in baseball.
The Phillies are currently in the 2nd Wild Card spot of the National League and that's all they are fighting for. The Braves are running away with the NL East, but Philadelphia's playoff hopes are very much alive.
At home against a far inferior Royals team, Philly will definitely want to win this series and perhaps sweep to boost their chances in the Wild Card race.
Royals vs Phillies Game Information
Now, the Royals are arguably the hottest team in baseball. They've won six straight games, however all of those games were at home. Over their last 10 away games, Kansas City is only 2-8.
The Phillies are finally home after seven games on the road. They went 4-3 over that stretch and are 11-9 since the All Star Break. Aaron Nola gets the start today against the Royals, will he be able to cool down these young guys?
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Friday, August, 4th, 2023
- First Pitch: 7:05pm Eastern
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Pitching Matchup
- Kansas City Royals: Jordan Lyles (2-12, 6.15 ERA)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola (9-7, 4.44 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Royals +1.5 (+100)
- Phillies -1.5 (-120)
Moneyline
- Royals +200
- Phillies -245
Total
- Over 9.5 (+100)
- Under 9.5 (-120)
Can the Royals Find the Magic Away from the K?
I don't need to tell you how bad the Royals are, but let me really spell it out for you.
Their batting average, OBP, and Slugging percentage all drop at least 20 points on the road. Batting AVG goes from .248 to .227, OBP from .314 to .279, and Slugging percentage from .397 to .369.
They're 2nd to last in runs and OBP, and 3rd to last in hits allowed, runs allowed and team ERA.
The Phillies are a better team at home, posting a 28-20 record this year at Citizens Bank Park.
With Aaron Nola on the mound, I'm confident they end the Royals streak tonight.
I'm not sold on the Royals magic working away from Kauffman.
The Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-116) BetOnline
Player Props
Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 Bases (+125) Bovada
Marsh smashes righties.
Lyles is 2-12 on the year and his ERA is north of 6 runs, plus Marsh bats .300 against RHP this year. This is up from his regular average of .279.
Marsh has seen Lyles 5 times in his career. Marsh walked once and had a single and a double. So he bats .500 in 4 at bats, that's enough for me to pull the trigger at plus money at home.
He has a hit in two straight, including a home run. Marsh also has 3+ bases in 4 of his last 9 home contests, and a hit in his last two.
I'll take a lefty against this struggling pitcher for +125 every day of the week.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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