One of the highest rated offenses on the day is the Cleveland Guardians, sitting just .014 decimal points behind the Braves, who hold the top spot. They have the pleasure of facing your grandfather's favorite pitcher of all time, Rich Hill.
Blalock vs. Guardians
The Guardians get to take on Bradley Blalock, who owns the worst pitcher rating on the slate, according to Batters-Box. The Rockies starter also ranks dead last in matchup strikeout percentage and matchup wOBA. He holds the second worst hard contact percentage and matchup ISO. Over his last 57 innings pitched, he is allowing over 40% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Despite some success away from Coors Field, Blalock is still getting torched by left-handed bats. Lefties are slashing .411/.452/.643/1.094 against him. Five of Cleveland's five elite-rated hitters tonight bat from the left side. In fact, their top six rated hitters will all be batting left-handed. Cleveland's left-handed hitters rank fifth in baseball against right-handed pitching, slashing .234 with a .402 slugging percentage and a 100 wRC+.
Yes, the Guardians have struggled at times with scoring early, but at home, they are still averaging over two runs in the first five innings. The Rockies, on the other hand, are allowing over three runs in that same span when on the road.
Adding to that, the Guardians have been playing excellent baseball. Over the last seven and 14 days, they rank as the fifth best offense in MLB, per FanGraphs. They are also the fifth best offense at home this season, posting a .308 OBP, .362 SLG, and a 91 wRC+.
Even though the Guardians average about a run less than the number below, I believe this is a spot where their offense explodes. If you disagree, feel free to fade me and take the plus money. With the way I have been losing bets, the odds would be in your favor.
Best Bet: Guardians First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-130) odds via BetOnline
