I have said it once, and I will say it again and again. Any first five team total sitting at 1.5 runs is a gift—if you like the team to have success. The price does not matter if it is below -170, as long as the total stays at 1.5. Once it jumps to 2.5 runs, then the price begins to matter more.
Today, the books have the Los Angeles Angels first five team total at 1.5, priced at $1.55, which I will gladly pay. Their offense today features six elite rated hitters, according to Batters-Box's current season ratings. Yes, six. While they do have seven hitters above the league strikeout rate, only one is above the league ground ball rate. The Angels are a swing-happy team. I knew this even before seeing the strikeout data. That does not worry or concern me.
That aggressive offense draws Rays starter Ryan Pepiot, who holds the sixth worst rating on the day. He brings poor matchup metrics across ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. The right hander is allowing 40% hard contact this season.
Pepiot vs. Angels
Over his last five road starts, Pepiot owns a 6.46 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 48% hard hit rate, and 1.52 HR/9. Opposing hitters have posted a .269 xBA, .475 xSLG, and .352 xwOBA during that stretch. Overall on the road this season, he has a 4.30 ERA while allowing 4.4 hits and 2.8 runs per start.
Right handed bats have been his biggest issue. They are hitting .257 with a .793 OPS off him this season. Over his last 20 innings against righties, he has a 6.10 ERA. Those same hitters have a .319 xBA, .589 xSLG, and .323 xwOBA. Five of the Angels' six elite rated bats are right handed.
Los Angeles ranks as the 11th best first five scoring team in baseball, averaging 2.52 runs at home. The Rays are allowing over two runs per first five on the road.
This is a fair price for the perfect number. Now we just need the Angels bats to show up early.
