Pirates vs Mets: Odds & Predictions | May 14, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed May 14, 2025, 1:07 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Pirates vs Mets: Francisco Lindor is not the only Mets bat in a strong spot today. Pete Alonso has a favorable matchup against a struggling lefty and offers great value on a hit prop. With the metrics and matchup aligning, this is a spot worth highlighting.
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Last Month: 100-160-2 (+3.76u)
Last Week: 20-38 (+2.05u)
Pirates vs Mets Odds
Can Mets stud Pete Alonso put on another iconic performance tonight?
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Runline
Pirates: +1.5 (+114)
Mets: -1.5 (-134)
Total
Over: 8 (-108)
Under: 8 (-112)
Moneyline
Pirates: +256
Mets: -283
Pirates vs Mets Best Bet
Despite what I said about Francisco Lindor in my Best Bets piece, I also like Pete Alonso in this matchup. At $1.52 for a hit, this is a spot I need to be all over.
Coming off a hitless Tuesday, the first baseman is in a strong bounce-back position against Pirates starter Bailey Falter, who holds the second-worst rating on Batters-Box.com. The left-hander carries poor marks in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. On the road this season, he has struggled with a 6.05 ERA and a .307 opponent batting average. Overall, he owns a 4.36 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, allowing just over 35% hard contact.
Today, Alonso carries a great rating on Batters-Box.com. When rated great at home, he records a hit 60% of the time, hits a home run 20% of the time, and goes over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in 51% of games. That is based on a 35-game great rating home sample. Against left-handed pitching this season, he is batting a sharp .313 with a 1.030 OPS and a .436 OBP. For his career, he holds a .236 average, .345 OBP, .864 OPS, and a 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
According to Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, Alonso matches up extremely well against Falter's pitch mix. With how well Alonso has been seeing the ball and how much Falter has struggled, it is tough to pass up a -152 hit prop.
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Hit (-152) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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