Pirates vs. Royals: Pitching Prop Predictions | July 9, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed Jul 09, 2025, 4:00 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Pirates vs. Royals: Tonight's pitching matchup sets up perfectly for a fade on the Pirates, who have struggled mightily at the plate. Royals lefty Kris Bubic has been dominant this season, racking up strikeouts and now facing one of the league's weakest offenses. Expect Bubic to continue his dominance as the Pirates' strikeout woes deepen.
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Last Month: 60-139 (-19.84u)
Last Week: 6-26 (-9.39u)
I am colder than your father's beer fridge. Full fade.
Pirates vs. Royals Best Bets – July 9
How will Oneil Cruz perform against Kris Bubic?
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The time has come. We are once again fading a team that is swing-happy and strikes out at a high rate. Today, that team is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who face off against Royals left-hander Kris Bubic.
The Royals' stud southpaw has been incredible this season. He owns the top pitcher rating on Batters-Box and ranks second among starters in average hitter matchup strikeout percentage today. At home, Bubic averages just over six strikeouts per game. He has not hit this number since June 24 against the Rays, when he went six innings and struck out eight.
Fun fact: Bubic has only finished with exactly seven strikeouts once this season. He has gone over that number seven times and reached eight strikeouts in six of those outings. If you are buying what I am selling, ladder his strikeouts.
Pirates Struggling at the Dish
Pittsburgh has been one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to striking out on the road, ranking fourth-worst overall. Over the last seven days, they are dead last in that category. They are also second-worst in strikeout rate for July and against left-handed pitching. The Pirates rank third-worst in batting average against lefties, and dead last in both wRC+ and wOBA. This lineup is a mess.
Today's lineup, per Batters-Box, is rated the worst overall offense. It features zero elite bats, eight hitters above the league-average strikeout rate, and nine above the league-average ground ball rate. That ground ball tendency is a slight concern since Bubic owns a 51% ground ball rate over the last three seasons, and the Pirates struggle to elevate the ball. However, Bubic has lowered his ground ball percentage this season, so I can live with that being the biggest issue.
This matchup screams strikeout overload. Bubic's consistent dominance, combined with the Pirates' striking flaws, makes him an ideal candidate to smash his strikeout prop. Expect the swings and misses to pile up, and this one to be a prime spot for bettors who like to ride the heat. Overall, this is a great price and a better sweat against a struggling offense.
Best Bet: Kris Bubic Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+120) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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