My muse, my love, Kyle Schwarber, is back in our hearts this evening in our nation's capital. We are locked in on his home run only. Why? His prices for hits, runs, RBI, and bases are disgusting. Schwarber is mostly a single, home run, or bust type of slugger. Sure, he doubled last night, but those are rare. If you want to pair his double with the home run for a cushion, go for it. I will be here solely on the nuke missile at +230.
Schwarber enters today with an elite rating in both of Batters-Box's metrics. In 180 elite ratings over the last three seasons, he has recorded a home run 26% of the time. This season, in 32 elite ratings, that rate jumps to 31%.
Schwarber vs. Lord
The leftie loo faces Nationals right-hander Brad Lord, who has struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season. Over his last 60 lefties faced, Lord has allowed 50% hard contact and a 2.84 HR/9. Those hitters own a .374 xBA, .909 xSLG, and .369 xwOBA during that span.
Lord leans on his fastball 54% of the time, mixes in his sinker 16% of the time, and throws his changeup 11% of the time. These are exactly the pitches I look for when backing Schwarber. He feasts on them. Against sinkers this season, Schwarber owns a .309 batting average, 1.118 OPS, and 214 wRC+ — those are his numbers against Lord's best pitch.
Despite the Phillies' road struggles, Schwarber has maintained a .547 SLG and .914 OPS on the road this season. The price is more than fair for a player who could lead the league in home runs. Plus, when this is the only bet on him for the night, we are sweating out the most electric wager in all of sports — the nuke missile.
