Padres vs. Marlins: After a rough Sunday at the plate, Kyle Stowers is in a perfect spot to bounce back tonight. He draws one of the softest pitching matchups on the slate and owns elite underlying metrics in his favor. Everything points toward a strong showing from the Marlins outfielder.
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Padres vs. Marlins Best Bets – July 21
Will there be more Kyle Stowers magic this evening?
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Coming off an 0-4 day on Sunday, Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers is primed for a bounce back against Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day. He also holds the worst-rated matchup strikeout percentage in both current season and default ratings on Batters-Box. This season alone, Vasquez has a sub-10% strikeout rate. The right-hander has also struggled against left-handed hitters, who are batting .273 with an .834 OPS.
Nearly half of Vasquez's pitch mix grades below league average, per FanGraphs. His best pitch is a sinker that he throws 16% of the time. Stowers owns a .375 batting average, .987 OPS, and 193 wRC+ against sinkers this season. He also has very strong numbers against the rest of Vasquez's arsenal.
Stowers holds an elite rating across both Batters-Box timeframes and owns the fifth-highest matchup rating in the current season data. Through 25 elite-rated games this season, he records at least one hit 76% of the time, two hits 32%, and goes over this prop 56%. He also leaves the yard 28% of the time.
These are strong trends I want to back this evening against a struggling right-hander—especially when Stowers owns a sub-.300 average but an .890 OPS against right-handed pitching this season.
Best Bet: Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-110) odds via BetOnline
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