New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions: July 16, 2026
Written by: PJ Glasser
Last Update: Thu Jul 16, 2026, 3:29 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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What a great few days it was in Philadelphia for MLB All-Star week celebrating America's 250th year. The Home Run derby was electric with Jordan Walker knocking off Kyle Schwarber in his home ballpark and a great All-Star Game that saw the American League winning and Cody Bellinger taking home MVP.
Now the 2nd half of the MLB season starts. This is when the baseball starts to get really good. Every game, every series is important as teams are trying to make a playoff push and win their divisions. To kick off the 2nd half of the season will be the Phillies taking on the Mets in Philadelphia. I'll share my Mets vs Phillies picks. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for tonight's matchup.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Insights
Aaron Nola looks for his 4th win of the season
Tonight's pitching matchup will feature Aaron Nola vs Christian Scott. Nola has not been great for the Phillies this season to put it bluntly. The Phillies right hander has a 3-6 record with a 5.75 ERA. That ERA jumps to 6.81 at home this season and he has also yet to record a win at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have had an incredible turnaround this year. They were at one time 10 games below .500 and are now 11 games above .500. Led by Zach Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez, and Jesus Luzardo these 3 starters for Philly have been fantastic this season. If Nola can figure it out in the 2nd half they can be a really dangerous team.
Nola has made 31 appearances against the Mets in his career. He has an 11-10 record with a 3.42 ERA. Against the current lineup of the Mets, New York has an .848 OPS against Nola and they have 5 players in their lineup that are batting .250 or higher lifetime against him with more than 5 at bats. I think the Mets could find some success tonight against Nola.
Matchup Information — Mets vs Phillies— July 16
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Venue: Citizens Bank Park ( Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
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Date: Thursday, July 16 2026
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First Pitch: 7:00 PM ET
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Broadcast: ESPN
Mets vs Phillies Pitching Matchup
- New York Mets (40-57): RHP Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA, 65 SO)
- Philadelphia Phillies (54-43): RHP Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA, 102 SO)
Mets vs Phillies Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at LuckyRebel:
Run Line
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New York Mets +1.5 (-175)
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline
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Mets (+113)
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Phillies (-134)
Total
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Over 9.5 (-112)
- Under 9.5 (-108)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Picks
Can Soto and the Mets find success against Nola?
Best Bet: Mets ML (+113) – Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
These teams have two of the five highest payrolls in baseball. The Mets are 2nd in the MLB and the Phillies are 5th. The difference between the two is the Mets have the 4th worst record in baseball. It has been a complete and utter nightmare season for New York. They are playing for pride and jobs in the 2nd half of the season because there will be big changes made. I would expect to see some of that fight tonight against the Phillies.
Christian Scott has been a solid pitcher for them this year. 2-1 record with a 3.17 ERA in 54 innings pitched. He hasn't gone deep into games most of the time but he has been effective. I also like the fact we're backing him out of the all star break so the bullpen is fresh and ready to go at a moments notice.
Also, this season when both teams have gotten a day off of rest they are about .500 baseball teams. The Phillies have a 7-6 record the game after an off day and the Mets are 7-7. This is obviously extended rest coming off the break, but Philly had to deal with way more distractions considering they were hosting and had way more players participating.
When you consider Nola has not been good this year, the Mets have been decent the game after an off day, and this line is only Mets +113 all those things lead me to liking the Mets tonight as a slight underdog.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction: Mets win
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PJ has hosted national radio shows for the past 4 years on BETMGM Network and Westwood One Sports breaking down college football, college basketball, the NFL, MLB, and Golf. His sharp analysis and insight have earned him a growing following that looks forward to all his picks. Give him a follow on X: @PJGlasser9
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