Lock it Down Early: Thursday Expert Picks in the MLB
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Thu Oct 15, 2026, 8:06 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-205
6
-115u
+115
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
180
6.5
+100o
-123
Back for another week at Betting News after going 0-2 last week for a loss of 2.00 Units. YTD sits at 53-36 for a profit of 23.62 Units. Today we have 2 games on the slate. First, a pivotal Game 3 of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians and Game 4 of the National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. For this article we'll look at the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians game.
Let's dive into the Best Bets but Before we do, if you are looking for more information on how to bet baseball; take a look at our MLB Betting Guide.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Predictions
Game 3 has been moved up to 1PM EST due to weather concerns tonight in Cleveland. After losing. Game 1 by a 7-3 score, the Rays rebounded with a 3-1 win in Game 2. Rays starter Freddy Peralta tossed 6 shutout innings, striking out 6 and allowing only 4 hits to lead Tampa to the all important win. We have a venue change today as the series moves to Cleveland, so weather will become a concern. The forecast calls for 62 degrees, partly cloudy with a light wind blowing in with rain arriving later in the game.
Rays vs Guardians Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Griffin Jax (0-0, 4.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP)
- Cleveland Guardians – RHP Gavin Williams (1-0, 1.54 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
Rays vs Guardians Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at LuckyRebel:
Run Line
-
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-202)
-
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+65)
Moneyline
-
Rays +111
-
Guardian -134
Total
-
Over 6.5 (-120)
- Under 6.5 (-101)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians MLB Picks
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians F5 Under 3.5 -114 Lucky Rebel
This series has been tightly contested, at least during the first half of Games 1 and 2. In Game 1, we saw 2 runs cross the plate in the first 5 innings, while the bullpens allowed 8 runs from the 6th inning on. Game 2 we saw 3 runs cross the plate in the first 5 innings.
Gavin Williams goes for the Cleveland Guardians and he is coming off a stunning Game 5 of the ALDS where he struck out 12 White Sox hitters in only 5.2 innings pitched. He has certainly been the star of the show for the Guardians during this run. Williams has been solid at home this season where he sports a 2.84 ERA on a 1.04 WHIP, while holding opponents to a batting average of .201. During his postseason career is owns an ERA of 2.25 with a WHIP of 1.00 holding opponents to a batting average of .192.
Tampa Struggled against right handers on the road during the regular season as they had a batting average of .230, which was 4th worst in the majors. The also owned an OPS of .669, which was 2nd worst on major league baseball.
Many thought Tampa would go to Nick Martinez for Game 3 but the Rays threw a curveball and will counter with opener Griffin Jax. The right hander has only pitched 2 innings in the the post season thus far, allowing 1 earned run. Griffin owns elite stuff and can neutralize this Cleveland lineup early in the game. Dating back to the regular season, Jax has allowed only 2 runs in 20 innings pitched.
I think both of these starters will stick with the theme of the series thus far, a quiet first half of the game, I see value in the first 5 innings to stay under the total.
Be sure to check out other MLB plays from the great staff here at Betting News, as well as additional social media content.
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