MLB Picks and Predictions for June 27, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Sat Jun 27, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We have some great Saturday baseball on tap, and I've got three plays I really like today. Two pitchers are pushing me toward a pair of first five-inning picks, while Chase Burns is on the bump for the Reds, and I'm always interested every fifth day. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for June 27!
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Picks
Happy Chase Burns Day to those who celebrate!
The Reds head to PNC Park for a 4:05 PM ET matchup against the Pirates, and Burns is on the bump. He's one of the three best pitchers in the National League so far, and he's taken the massive step forward most expected coming into this season. His advanced metrics are all popping right off the page: 93rd percentile in strikeout rate, 94th percentile in whiff rate, and 87th percentile in chase rate per Baseball Savant. His expected ERA sits at 2.92, which is basically right in line with his 2.00 actual ERA. It's really nice when things align like that — no smoke and mirrors here.
Pirates vs. Reds Pitching Matchup
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Cincinnati Reds (38-42): RHP Chase Burns (9-1, 2.00 ERA, 102 SO)
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Pittsburgh Pirates (41-41): RHP Jared Jones (1-1, 5.75 ERA, 21 SO)
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings (-139) — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Burns is a big reason I like both of these plays.
Pittsburgh is striking out at the 11th-highest clip against right-handed pitching in the month of June. Burns' whiff-and-chase profile is elite, as the numbers above back up, and the Pirates are a lineup that's going to give him opportunities to pile up Ks. Over 6.5 is a very gettable number for a guy with elite strikeout and chase rates.
Meanwhile, the Reds have been pretty rough against right-handed pitching at the plate this month. However, Jared Jones is the other side of this equation, and he's posted mixed results. Jones still has some real untapped upside, and there's no question he's dealt with some tough injury luck. But in his 20 innings in 2026, things have been pretty Jekyll and Hyde.
Jones has surrendered five earned runs in a pair of starts and been good in the other three. His K rate is right around league average, his chase rate isn't very good, and while he does flash a nice whiff rate, batters simply aren't expanding the zone against him. With Burns mowing people down on the other side, I'll take the Reds to get out to an early lead and cash the first-five play.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees MLB Picks
The Yankees desperately need to right the ship in this series, and there's no better man for the job than Gerrit Cole on a Saturday afternoon at Fenway.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup
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New York Yankees (48-33): RHP Gerrit Cole (2-2, 3.62 ERA, 29 SO)
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Boston Red Sox (34-46): LHP Jake Bennett (1-3, 3.71 ERA, 22 SO)
Best Bet: New York Yankees First 5 Innings (-130) — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Cole has been much better than I anticipated coming off his injury this season, and he made an immediate impact on this rotation. He's not piling up strikeouts right now, but that's not too concerning because his fastball velocity looks fantastic. Cole is not walking hitters, and he's not giving up hard contact. His expected ERA sits at 3.20, which is right in line with where his actual ERA sits. I'll take my chances that the veteran gets things going for the Yankees here and keeps Boston off the board early.
Jake Bennett has been pretty good for the Sox, but I'm betting on the Yanks' bats to wake up behind their ace. Paul Goldschmidt has also been piping hot against left-handed pitchers at the top of the Yanks' lineup, which certainly helps the cause.
Good luck!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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