MLB Picks and Predictions for July 4, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Last Update: Sat Jul 04, 2026, 8:33 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Fourth of July! These holiday slates are always loaded, and there's a heat wave baking the entire country, which makes things even more interesting. I've got a pair of plays I really like, and both of them lean on some ugly pitching matchups meeting some scorching-hot weather. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for July 4!
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Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Picks
Bryan Reynolds is in a great spot today against the Nationals.
We're rocking early on this holiday, and every fifth day is another reason to celebrate because we get to target Zack Littell. The Pirates visit Nationals Park for an 11:05 AM ET matchup, with Braxton Ashcraft on the bump for Pittsburgh.
Pirates vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup
- Pittsburgh Pirates (44-45): RHP Braxton Ashcraft (8-3, 3.33 ERA, 115 SO)
- Washington Nationals (46-43): RHP Zack Littell (7-6, 5.29 ERA, 49 SO)
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-105) — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Littell has been absolutely atrocious again this season, and honestly, I don't know how he's still pitching in the big leagues. He's given up 22 home runs, and lefties specifically have killed him with 16 bombs and a slugging percentage well over .600.
This Pirates lineup has been a ton of fun this year. In fact, they posted the second-highest wRC+ in baseball against right-handed pitching in the month of June. Additionally, there are plenty of lefties with pop to attack Littell with. Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Lowe, and the list goes on.
According to Baseball Savant, Littell is even worse than the front-facing stats indicate. He owns a 5.29 ERA, but his expected ERA is all the way up at 6.76. He's in the 2nd percentile in expected batting average allowed and the 1st percentile in average exit velocity allowed, so you can guess the barrel and hard-hit rates he's yielding are of epic proportions too. He also doesn't keep the ball on the ground.
Combine all of that with the fact that it's literally going to be 100 degrees in Washington, D.C., and that baseball is going to be flying against a pitcher who loves to give up loud contact.
On top of that, the Nationals bullpen has been miserable, with an ERA sitting just south of 5.00 and a whopping 62 home runs allowed this season. I'm surprised this thing isn't juiced toward the over, and maybe it will be by the morning.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins MLB Picks
Cody Bellinger could take advantage of the Yankee Stadium short porch today.
I'm attacking the game's run total in the Bronx, where the Yankees' pitching situation is a mess, and the weather is going to have the ball flying. The Twins visit Yankee Stadium for a 1:35 PM ET matchup, with Zebby Matthews toeing the rubber for Minnesota and the Yankees' starter still to be determined as of late Friday night.
Twins vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup
- Minnesota Twins (42-46): RHP Zebby Matthews (4-5, 4.15 ERA, 46 SO)
- New York Yankees (48-38): TBD
Best Bet: Over 9.5 Runs (-128) — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
As of late Friday night, the Yankees still haven't announced a starting pitcher. They're in a world of hurt now that Carlos Rodon has landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. That doesn't help their cause at all, and they'll most likely piece together a messy game with a bunch of arms cycling in and out.
Meanwhile, it's Zebby Matthews for the Twins, who I've just been very wrong about so far. I still think he has long-term upside, and you've probably heard me talk about him on a couple of Betting News shows, but he hasn't fully figured it out yet. He's actually had an exceptional month of June, giving up two runs or less in four of his five starts.
The problem is that when he gets shelled, he gets shelled badly. His home/road splits are ugly too — a 2.08 ERA at home against a whopping 5.93 ERA on the road, albeit in a small sample. Even though he's trending, I'm going to have some faith in these Yankees bats to come through, even if that's been few and far between lately.
Last year during Matthews' cup of coffee, he pitched nearly 80 innings, and lefties really got to him with a .316 batting average and a .544 slugging. Of course, the Yankees are still missing Aaron Judge, but they have plenty of capable lefties in the lineup. Ben Rice is having an MVP-worthy campaign and homered yesterday, Trent Grisham is back in the fold and also went deep yesterday, and it's great to see those bats heating up — plus Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, and the rest. They've got far more lefty pop than they did a couple of years ago, and I think that spells trouble.
Then there's the kicker: the Twins' bullpen has been an absolute disaster. They own the worst bullpen ERA in Major League Baseball and a 1.56 WHIP that doesn't help their case. So you can triple down on this take. Between the Yankees' starting-pitcher woes, Zebby Matthews' track record against the lefties New York can throw at him, and mid-90s temperatures with a short porch in right field, there are plenty of reasons to back the over.
Good luck, and have a fantastic Fourth of July!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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