MLB Picks and Predictions for July 1, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Wed Jul 01, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We've got a big slate of baseball on tap for Wednesday, and I've got a pair of plays I really like. I'm leaning on a first-five pick in the Bronx and backing a heavy road favorite down in Atlanta. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for July 1st!
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New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Picks
The Yankees have been absolutely miserable lately, and I don't see the offensive lulls stopping in a quick turnaround from a night game to a day game on Wednesday. The Tigers battle the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium for a 1:35 PM ET matchup, and Troy Melton is set to be on the bump for Detroit.
Tigers vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup
- Detroit Tigers (36-49): RHP Troy Melton (4-1, 2.39 ERA, 25 SO)
- New York Yankees (48-36): RHP Will Warren (7-3, 3.75 ERA, 84 SO)
Best Bet: Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings Moneyline (+114) — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Melton has been superb, even if he doesn't have a ton of strikeout stuff, ranking in just the 16th percentile in that department. His chase rate is at least around league average, so there's a little optimism there, but what he's doing really well right now is avoiding damage. He's not allowing hard contact per Baseball Savant — 83rd percentile there — he's not giving up barrels, and he doesn't walk batters, so he stays out of trouble. Both his expected ERA and expected batting average sit in the upper third of the league. He leans on the fastball a bit more than I'd like, but he can mix in five other pitches.
The Yankees simply haven't shown any signs of life. I know they're a potent offense when you stretch the sample back to the start of the season, but they've been hurting without Aaron Judge, and of course Giancarlo Stanton has been missing for a long time now. Anthony Volpe has been terrible, and I just haven't seen a pulse from this lineup. Detroit posted a big number on the Yankees on Tuesday night, and I'm happy to take the plus money on a pitcher who's been analytically excellent so far this season.
On the other side, Will Warren has been below league average when you look at the under-the-hood stuff. He carries a 4.09 expected ERA and ranks well below league average in chase rate, whiff rate, and average exit velocity allowed. That's another favorable matchup for the Tigers. I'd rather take the bullpens out of the equation here and grab the first five.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB Picks
I'm like the Braves at home, as the Cardinals visit Truist Park for a 7:15 PM ET matchup, with Michael McGreevy toeing the rubber for St. Louis.
Braves vs. Cardinals Pitching Matchup
- St. Louis Cardinals (43-38): RHP Michael McGreevy (3-6, 3.12 ERA, 57 SO)
- Atlanta Braves (49-33): RHP Reynaldo Lopez (3-1, 3.47 ERA, 40 SO)
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-136) — Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This one is pretty much a fade of McGreevy. He carries a respectable 3.12 ERA, but the advanced stuff tells the story of one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball right now. He ranks in just the 8th percentile in expected ERA, owns an abnormal 16% strikeout rate, and he doesn't miss bats. The Cards' hurler also doesn't walk anyone, so Atlanta is going to get a ton of hacks. The righty does a decent job keeping the ball on the ground, but I think the batted-ball luck runs out eventually.
It's going to be in the 90s in Atlanta on Wednesday, so I expect a lot of hard contact. On the other side, you could make a similar regression case for Reynaldo Lopez, and there's probably some coming for him too. That said, Lopez does a great job of limiting barrels and hard contact this season, even with some of the other stuff not being pretty. I think McGreevy's regression hits harder, so I'm backing the Braves.
Good luck!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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