MLB Picks and Props for Friday, May 15: Will Schlittler Slide?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Fri May 15, 2026, 11:13 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Friday, folks! Not only is it a great feeling to get to this point of the week, but it's even better when we have a loaded slate of Major League Baseball on deck.
There are several great new series getting underway today, and we'll discuss a few of them below with my MLB picks and props for Friday, May 15.
MLB Picks and Props for Friday, May 15
It's time for the Subway Series on the East Coast, as the Yankees and Mets square off for the first time this season.
These teams have each done a complete 180 over their past five games. The Yankees, who had been one of the most dominant teams in baseball, have now dropped four of their past five contests. Meanwhile, after the Mets continued to disappoint game after game, they're currently riding a three-game winning streak after sweeping the Tigers at home.
Friday's pitching matchup features a battle between right-handers, as current AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler takes the mound for the Yankees, while Clay Holmes gets the nod for the Metropolitans.
Schlittler has been outstanding in his second season in the majors. Through nine starts and 53.1 innings, the 25-year-old is 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.65 FIP. He's also posted a 49% ground-ball rate, a microscopic 2% HR/FB rate and a 25% strikeout-to-walk ratio.
As inconsistent as the Mets have been offensively, they've still done a respectable job limiting strikeouts. Over the past month, New York owns a 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, which ranks inside the top 10. If we shorten the sample to games since the start of May, that number drops even further to 19.3%, which ranks fourth-best in baseball during that span.
Schlittler could absolutely deal in this game, but I'm not so certain he'll be punching out a ton of batters.
On the flip side, I will be betting an over in the prop department for Clay Holmes. We've backed the over on his strikeout prop in each of his past two starts, both of which he cleared with ease. Sportsbooks had been setting his line at 3.5, and Holmes has struck out six batters in each of his past three starts.
Now, the books have finally adjusted and moved his prop to 4.5, with -140 juice toward the over. I'm not in love with the movement, but honestly, I still project him to finish with around six strikeouts tonight, giving us enough value to jump back in on the 33-year-old right-hander.
The Yankees have been middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past month at 22%, and we've seen a slight increase over the past couple of weeks, as that number has risen to 23%.
Until Holmes proves otherwise, I'll continue to back him.
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves
Let's look at the lone side I'll be targeting on today's slate.
Yes, this team burned me last night by putting up an absolute dud and losing 2-0 to my Cubbies, but I'm going back to the well with the Atlanta Braves.
They'll have another ace-caliber arm taking the mound tonight in Spencer Strider, who looked much more like himself in his most recent outing.
His first start of the season came at Coors Field, which is never an ideal environment for any pitcher, especially when making a season debut. Strider lasted just 3.1 innings, allowing three earned runs on four hits while striking out six and walking five. It certainly wasn't a sharp performance, but it's also difficult to put too much stock into a first outing in the Rocky Mountains.
He bounced back in a big way against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, tossing six scoreless innings against the defending World Series champions. Strider allowed just one hit, racked up eight strikeouts and issued only two walks. That's the version of Strider we've grown accustomed to seeing, and it's the one I'm expecting tonight against Boston.
Over the past month, the Red Sox rank dead last in both wRC+ (77) and OPS (.633) against right-handed pitching, and it's hard to envision things suddenly turning around this evening. Interestingly, if we narrow the span of time from the start of May, what stands out is Boston's strikeout rate, and seeing how it's climbed to a rate of 24%.
Strider has never had issues piling up punchouts, and I'm expecting him to do exactly that again tonight. At plus money, there's value in backing Spencer Strider over 6.5 strikeouts (+119).
So not only will I be targeting Strider's strikeout prop, but I'll also be laying the run line with Atlanta at +140.
The Braves will be facing left-hander Connelly Early, who has put together a respectable start to his second season in the majors. The 24-year-old is 3-2 through eight starts with a 3.16 ERA and a solid 41% ground-ball rate.
MLB Bets & Props:
- Clay Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140 at Lucky Rebel)
- Cam Schlittler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-139 at Lucky Rebel)
- Braves -1.5 (+140 at Lucky Rebel)
- Spencer Strider over 6.5 strikeouts (+119 at Lucky Rebel)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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