MLB Picks and Predictions for July 23, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Thu Jul 23, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We've got a fun Thursday slate, and two runline plays are jumping off the page at me — one in the afternoon and one under the lights. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for July 23rd and find some winners!
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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres MLB Picks
I'm laying the runline with the Braves as they host the Padres at Truist Park for a 12:15 PM ET matinee. Griffin Canning takes the ball for San Diego, with Chris Sale set to toe the rubber on the other side.
Padres vs. Braves Pitching Matchup
- San Diego Padres: RHP Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.67 ERA, 59 SO)
- Atlanta Braves: LHP Chris Sale (10-6, 2.06 ERA, 123 SO)
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves Runline -1.5 — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
This is a pure fade of Canning, who's been absolutely terrible for San Diego. He carries a 6.67 ERA with eight losses, and while he's been a touch unlucky, his expected ERA still sits at 4.94 — atrocious all things considered. According to Baseball Savant, Canning ranks in just the 3rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 18th percentile in barrel rate allowed.
The splits are the bigger story here. Canning has actually been pretty good against right-handed hitters, but he's been terrible against lefties, allowing a .316/.403/.537 slash with eight home runs and an ugly 1.91 WHIP.
The Braves have exactly the left-handed hitters to make his life difficult on Thursday. Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, and Dominic Smith are all lefty bats who can do significant damage. It's nice to see the Braves with the ability to roll out a stack of left-handed hitters if they choose — and they definitely should.
Meanwhile, Sale is on the mound for the Braves. That's all you really need to know. I think he'll do his job, and I think these lefties will widen the gap enough that we can cover this runline pick on Thursday afternoon.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals MLB Picks
I'm heading to Detroit as the Tigers host the Royals for a 6:40 PM ET matchup at Comerica Park. Troy Melton is scheduled to start for Detroit with Randy Dobnak on the other side.
Royals vs. Tigers Pitching Matchup
- Kansas City Royals: RHP Randy Dobnak (0-0, 1.93 ERA, 7 SO)
- Detroit Tigers: RHP Troy Melton (5-1, 1.80 ERA, 50 SO)
Best Bet: Detroit Tigers Runline -1.5 — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
I'm going to keep backing anything to do with Melton, who's been unbelievable with a 1.80 ERA. While I initially wasn't sold on his strikeout stuff earlier this year, he's now slightly above league average in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate. Those are awesome developments.
He also keeps the ball on the ground and ranks in the 82nd percentile in barrel rate allowed, so he's not giving up barrels or hard contact. Melton's average fastball velocity sits north of 96 mph, so that's fine as well. That sparkling 1.80 ERA is backed up by an 87th-percentile expected ERA, so I absolutely love this, especially at home.
Dobnak, on the other side, hasn't pitched much in 2026, only a handful of innings, but none of the metrics are friendly. I really like Melton's groove matched up with Dobnak, who owns a career 4.60 ERA and has given up 169 hits in 154 2/3 innings — really uninspiring all things considered. We're getting what I think is a very lopsided pitching matchup here.
The Tigers have been a little average to below average against righties, but I think the pitching edge is too big to ignore, and they have enough power bats in their lineup with Riley Greene and company that the runline is worth backing on Thursday.
Good luck on Thursday. Let's cash a couple of winners!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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