MLB Picks and Predictions for July 18, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Sat Jul 18, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We're back for our first big weekend of baseball since the All-Star break, and I've got a couple of picks popping off the page. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for Saturday and find some bangers!
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Athletics vs. Washington Nationals MLB Picks
I'm attacking a game total to open the card. The Nationals visit the Athletics at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento for a 10:05 PM ET matchup, with Zack Littell and J.T. Ginn set to toe the rubber.
Athletics vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup
- Washington Nationals: RHP Zack Littell (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 57 SO)
- Athletics: RHP J.T. Ginn (7-6, 3.67 ERA, 93 SO)
Best Bet: Nationals/Athletics Over 10.5 Runs (-110) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
It's going to be hot in Sacramento, with temperatures pushing 90 degrees during the peak daytime hours. A little cooler by first pitch, sure, but still a great hitting environment in an awesome small ballpark for bats.
Now to the Athletics. I've picked on this team a lot, and they're still missing some key pieces due to injury, but the big factor here is that they're at home. In short, the A's home/road splits are ridiculous. They're a bottom-of-the-barrel offense on the road, but at home they've been awesome even while banged up, ranking third in wRC+ at home since the beginning of June.
Littell carries a 4.90 ERA, and as ugly as that is, he's actually been lucky. He owns a second-percentile expected ERA all the way up at 6.39 and ranks in just the third percentile in expected batting average. He does nothing well, and he's already coughed up 23 home runs this season.
Now he has to travel across the country to a tiny ballpark in hot-hitting conditions against an offense that typically cooks at home. I'm not kidding when I say the A's could clear this number nearly on their own.
Meanwhile, for the A's, J.T. Ginn sports a nice 3.67 ERA for the A's, but his expected ERA is right around league average.
He's done a really nice job limiting hard contact and balls in the air, so it's a tougher draw for Washington. He's been pretty good at home overall (3.75 ERA), though that comes with an ugly 1.56 WHIP. The Nationals rank 12th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching since June 1, but in a smaller sample they've been absolutely scorching, ranking first in that department since the beginning of July.
The cherry on top: both bullpens are terrible, ranking in the bottom four in baseball in bullpen ERA. The Nationals have surrendered a whopping 71 home runs and now have to pitch in the heat at Sutter Health Park, while the A's are no stranger to the long ball either, having coughed up 57.
Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Picks
Logan Webb hasn't been a true ace this season.
Now to the complete opposite end of the bill in a pitcher-friendly park. The Giants visit T-Mobile Park for an 8:08 PM ET matchup, with Bryan Woo and Logan Webb set to toe the rubber.
Mariners vs. Giants Pitching Matchup
- San Francisco Giants: RHP Logan Webb (5-7, 3.86 ERA, 80 SO)
- Seattle Mariners: RHP Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.23 ERA, 102 SO)
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-127) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
Webb has the luxury of pitching in a nice pitcher's park himself, and his numbers are just fine — a 3.96 expected ERA — but still a little underwhelming for a guy considered a borderline ace or a very good No. 2.
He owns just a 29th-percentile strikeout rate per Baseball Savant, and while he's getting hitters to chase, his whiff rate is only 11%, which is a little concerning. He is still doing a really nice job keeping the ball on the ground, but I honestly thought his numbers would be better given how nice the conditions are at his home park.
Meanwhile, Woo has predictably been much better at home than on the road. He carries a 3.51 expected ERA, so he's due for some positive regression, and his splits are stark: a 2.10 ERA at home versus a brutal 6.28 mark on the road.
It also helps that these Mariners have a bunch of lefty mashers, and Julio Rodriguez — one of their stars, though not a lefty masher himself — could return from the injured list on Saturday. Seattle has awesome power numbers against right-handed pitching at home, which is impressive in its own right at T-Mobile Park.
One more angle, and I love the mental component of this one: who knows what's going through the Giants' heads after it went public on Friday — probably not a secret to most in the baseball world — that they're pretty much selling, willing to listen on deals for anybody outside a couple of key cornerstones. Give me the Mariners.
Let's have a Saturday!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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