MLB Picks and Predictions for August 12, 2026
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Wed Aug 12, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Wednesday! You've found my best MLB bets today. I'm narrowing things down to a pair of games that stand out, so let's dig into my best MLB picks for August 12 and see if we can find a couple of winners.
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Picks
We'll start in the afternoon as the Phillies visit the Cardinals at Busch Stadium for a 2:15 PM ET matchup. Zack Wheeler is set to take the bump for Philadelphia against Kyle Leahy for St. Louis.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Pitching Matchup
- Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Zack Wheeler (10–3, 2.69 ERA, 132 SO)
- St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Kyle Leahy (8–4, 3.45 ERA, 99 SO)
Best Bet: Phillies First 5 Innings ML (−155) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
I'm isolating the first five innings in this one and backing the Phillies on the moneyline. This is just a totally lopsided pitching matchup.
Zack Wheeler is on the bump for Philadelphia, and he has been absolutely brilliant this year. So much for the late-start injury concerns! You don't even have to go too deep into the advanced metrics to understand how good Wheeler has been, but they are all through the roof anyway. He owns a 2.73 expected ERA, ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate, and he does not give up hard contact.
Wheeler should deal against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has been a little better against right-handed pitching in the small August sample, but since the beginning of July, it ranks just 28th in weighted runs created plus against righties. That is the more reliable sample, and it is a big deal when you are running into a pitcher like Wheeler.
Kyle Leahy Has Been Lucky
Meanwhile, Kyle Leahy is projected to start for St. Louis, and he has been one of the luckier starting pitchers in baseball this season. He has a respectable 3.45 ERA, but the expected ERA is all the way up at 5.23. That is a massive gap.
Leahy strikes out fewer than a hitter per inning, ranks in just the ninth percentile in expected batting average, and allows a double-digit barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. He also ranks in the second percentile in hard-hit rate, which tells you hitters are absolutely mashing the ball against him. Leahy does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but there is a major vulnerability here against left-handed hitters.
Lefties are hitting .320 with a .482 slugging percentage against Leahy, and he owns a 1.83 WHIP against them. That is where I like Philadelphia in the early innings. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott should all have the platoon advantage, and they are facing a pitcher who has been fortunate to escape with the surface-level ERA he carries.
The full-game moneyline is way too expensive for me, so I'd rather attack the first five innings. Hopefully, Wheeler throws a bunch of zeros on the board — I'm expecting him to do exactly that — while the Philly lefties make Leahy's underlying profile look a little more honest.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Picks
Now we'll head to Detroit, where the Guardians visit the Tigers at Comerica Park for a 6:40 PM ET first pitch. Foster Griffin is scheduled to take the mound for Cleveland against Framber Valdez for Detroit.
Guardians vs. Tigers Pitching Matchup
- Cleveland Guardians: LHP Foster Griffin (12–4, 3.31 ERA, 122 SO)
- Detroit Tigers: LHP Framber Valdez (7–7, 4.17 ERA, 103 SO)
Best Bet: Guardians/Tigers Over 8 Runs (−105) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
We have a battle of two southpaws here, and I like over 8 runs. The bullpens are probably why we are getting such a low total, as Cleveland has been around league average and Detroit's relief group has been pretty good. I'm hoping the hitters can get it done in the early going.
Framber Valdez has struggled all year and has not lived up to the hype or the big contract. He owns a 4.17 ERA, which is about in line with his expected ERA. Valdez still keeps the ball on the ground at a very high rate, but he is not missing bats the way we are used to seeing.
He is striking out fewer than 20% of hitters, ranks in just the 14th percentile in whiff rate, and has allowed a 43% hard-hit rate. That is big-time contact, and it is a major concern against a Cleveland lineup that has been more than serviceable against lefties.
Since the beginning of July, the Guardians have been exactly league average in weighted runs created plus against left-handed pitching. That is enough for our purposes against a pitcher who has been allowing this much hard contact. However, in August, Cleveland ranks ninth in wRC+ against lefties and sits inside the top 10 in both on-base percentage and OPS vs. southpaws.
On the other side, Foster Griffin has a shiny 3.31 ERA, but he looks due for a little regression himself. His expected ERA is all the way up at 4.09, while his strikeout and whiff rates are pretty much league average.
Griffin has been very good against left-handed hitters, but he has not been nearly as effective against righties. He has allowed 15 home runs to right-handed hitters and 21 overall this season. That is where Detroit can make some noise.
Tigers' Offense Mashing Lefty Pitchers
The Tigers have been absolutely on fire against left-handed pitching in August, leading the league by a considerable margin in weighted runs created plus. Griffin is going to see plenty of capable right-handed bats, and Detroit has a real opportunity to get to him early.
Between Valdez's down year, Griffin's regression indicators, and two offenses that have shown they can hit left-handed pitching, I think this flat 8 is a little too low. Give me the over.
Before we go, check out some of these betting tools! Good luck on Wednesday. Let's cash a couple of winners!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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