MLB Expert Picks for 8/19: Chase Cinci’s Star Pitcher on Wednesday
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Wed Aug 19, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Wednesday's baseball slate is loaded, and it's time to make my MLB expert picks for August 19! I'm banking on some runs being scored in Baltimore, while a superstar pitcher is in a great spot against the Cardinals. Let's dive into my best MLB picks for today and see if we can cash a couple of winners.
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MLB Expert Picks Today: Wednesday, August 19
We'll start at Camden Yards, where the Orioles host the Yankees for a 6:35 PM ET matchup. Will Warren is scheduled to take the mound for New York against Chris Bassitt for Baltimore.
Yankees vs. Orioles Pitching Matchup
- New York Yankees: RHP Will Warren (8–6, 4.42 ERA, 117 SO)
- Baltimore Orioles: RHP Chris Bassitt (4–4, 5.11 ERA, 40 SO)
Best Bet: Yankees/Orioles Over 9 Runs (−115) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
I like the over at an even 9. This is a pure fade of two pitchers who have not had good seasons, and we are getting a nice number without having to deal with the dreaded hook.
Will Warren is profiling as a well-below-average major league pitcher, and we now have a sample going on more than two years. His 4.42 ERA is basically right in line with the expected ERA, so there is no "unlucky" explanation coming to save him. The whiff rate and chase rate are both well below league average, while the strikeout rate is merely hovering around average.
My guess is that strikeout rate continues to trickle down closer to the rest of his swing-and-miss numbers. Warren does not suppress hard contact, has allowed 18 home runs this season, and owns a monstrous WHIP. Nothing is good.
That is a problem against an Orioles lineup that has quietly become one of the more interesting surprises of August. The American League wild-card race is a mess, with a bunch of sub-.500 teams still hanging around, but Baltimore has done enough lately to earn some credit. In August, the Orioles rank 10th in baseball in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching and are inside the top 10 in ISO and OPS.
Pete Alonso is an especially scary player to pitch to, and he can be the kind of difference-maker who blows up a total quickly. The Yankees bullpen was also used a little more Tuesday after Carlos Rodon returned from the injured list and lasted only four innings. That could help create even more scoring opportunities later in the game.
Yankees vs. Orioles Predictions: Attack The Pitchers
Meanwhile, the Yankees have been pretty miserable offensively over the last month or so. But Chris Bassitt might be washed. Father Time catches up to everybody, even a 37-year-old who has been a reliable starter for a long time.
Bassitt's 5.11 ERA is pretty well validated by the expected numbers. He ranks in just the sixth percentile in expected batting average, second percentile in strikeout rate and third percentile in chase rate. He simply does not miss bats anymore.
The Yankees tend to struggle more against pitchers who have legitimate stuff. Bassitt does not have that right now. He still does a decent job keeping the ball on the ground and suppressing hard contact, but there is only so long you can survive while missing this few bats.
Left-handed hitters are batting .327 with a .520 slugging percentage against Bassitt this season, and the Yankees have plenty of lefties they can use to take advantage of that platoon split. Add in temperatures expected in the mid-to-high 80s at Camden Yards, and I think this number is live.
Give me the over 9 at −115. I'd much rather have a flat 9 than deal with an 8.5 or 9.5 here.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Expert Picks
Now we'll head to Great American Ball Park, where the Cardinals visit the Reds for a 6:40 PM ET first pitch. Matthew Liberatore is scheduled to take the mound for St. Louis against Chase Burns for Cincinnati.
Cardinals vs. Reds Pitching Matchup
- St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Matthew Liberatore (5–10, 5.07 ERA, 116 SO)
- Cincinnati Reds: RHP Chase Burns (14–2, 2.47 ERA, 151 SO)
Best Bet: Reds Moneyline (−135) — BetOnline.ag Sportsbook
I like the Reds moneyline at −135, and this is largely a fade of Matthew Liberatore. I have been off Liberatore all year, and this is not a profile I want to back at a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ball Park.
The southpaw has an ERA north of 5.00, and the underlying numbers are ugly across the board. He ranks no better than the 20th percentile in expected ERA or expected batting average, is well below league average in barrel rate allowed and hard-hit rate allowed, and does not keep the ball on the ground.
Liberatore has allowed 20 home runs this year; left-handed hitters are batting over .300 with a .522 slugging percentage against him, and righties are hitting .280. That is big trouble at Great American Ball Park. It is a tremendous hitting environment, and Liberatore is exactly the type of pitcher who can get blown up in a hurry if the command is even slightly off.
Cincinnati has not been fantastic against left-handed pitching over the summer, but the Cardinals have been even worse against right-handed pitching. Since the beginning of the summer, St. Louis ranks second-worst in baseball in weighted runs created plus against righties.
That is not a profile that should play well against Chase Burns. Burns has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball this season, and he is absolutely the kind of arm who can take advantage of an offense struggling this badly against right-handed pitching.
We are getting a pretty reasonable price on Cincinnati at home with a superstar pitcher on the mound and a major pitching advantage. Give me the Reds moneyline.
Good luck on Wednesday. Let's cash a couple of winners.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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