MLB Best Bets & Props for Sunday, May 10

Following Saturday's postponement due to rain, the pitching matchup between left-hander Payton Tolle and righty Nick Martinez has been moved to Sunday afternoon.

Both the Rays and Red Sox have won four of their last five games, and today serves as the rubber match of this shortened series.

The 23-year-old southpaw has been outstanding for Boston. Tolle has made just three starts, but already has a 2.04 ERA, 2.45 FIP and 5.6% HR/FB rate to show for it. The only real concern is his lack of generating ground balls, but perhaps that will improve alongside his experience in the Majors.

Tolle's opponent has been dreadful against lefties over the past couple of weeks, ranking T-29th in wRC+ (59). I'm expecting a big outing from the young arm this afternoon.

On the other side, Martinez's ERA has been great, sitting at 1.71, alongside a solid 3-1 record through seven starts. What concerns me, though, is his 3.90 expected ERA, 4.34 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA, all indicating regression could be looming.

Boston's bats have been almost as poor against righties as Tampa Bay's have been versus lefties, but the advantage of having the better pitcher and the home crowd behind them makes the Red Sox worth a play today.

In the rubber match between the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds, left-hander Andrew Abbott is set to start for the home team, while the visitors will implement more of a bullpen-style approach, with Kai-Wei Teng kicking things off before handing it over to a bulk reliever.

Houston has been improving against left-handed pitching over the past couple of weeks, posting a 100 wRC+ and .171 ISO. Abbott is certainly an arm they can expose, considering his 5.13 ERA, 5.34 xERA, 5.03 SIERA and 4.74 xFIP. There isn't much to feel great about throughout his pitching profile, and I'm not sure this is a spot where you'd want to back him.

Given the variety of arms the Reds may see, it could cause them to struggle offensively and prevent them from finding a rhythm at the plate. I'm liking the price we're getting with the road squad, and that's the side I'll be backing.

As for Bubba Chandler, his numbers are extremely concerning. He's 1-4 through seven starts with a 4.76 ERA, 5.12 xERA and 5.60 FIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at just 3.3%, and he's failed to reach at least five strikeouts in five of his seven starts this season.

The San Francisco Giants rank 11th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past couple of weeks at a respectable 20.6%.

This is an affordable price to fade Chandler this afternoon, and if he stays under again, we may not get another crack at a number like this for a while.

MLB Best Bets & Props:

• Red Sox Moneyline (-135)
• Astros Moneyline (+100)
• Jose Soriano Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-131)
• Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)