MLB Best Bets for Thursday, April 9: White Sox Woes Will Continue

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Thu Apr 09, 2026, 1:12 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Jac Caglianone and the Royals face the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium tonight in Kansas City - MLB Picks

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Thursday's MLB slate is on the lighter side, with just six games on the board and half of them getting underway in the early afternoon.

Still, there are a few solid spots to target, and I've got you covered with my MLB best bets for Thursday, April 9.

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MLB Best Bets for Thursday, April 9

Jack Flaherty is pitching very well as a member of the Tigers

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins

Somehow, the Detroit Tigers are staring down a potential four-game sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, which would mark their fifth straight loss and already their ninth of the season.

Typically, I like targeting teams in these spots when they're facing a sweep, expecting a response with their backs against the wall. That's the approach I'm taking here as well.

Jack Flaherty is taking the mound for the visitors, and his numbers have been rough through two starts. He's pitched 8.1 innings and has allowed seven earned runs on seven hits. Those don't seem atrocious, per se, but what hurts his underlying metrics is his eight walks to eight strikeouts. That, along with his 1.80 WHIP and 54.2% hard-hit rate, has contributed to his 5.22 FIP.

So why back him? Because we know what he's capable of. Flaherty should be pitching better than this, and this matchup sets up as a chance to get right against a relatively mediocre Twins lineup.

Even last season, when his ERA sat at 4.64, his expected ERA (3.97) and FIP (3.85) suggested positive regression. If the command tightens up, this is a spot where he can settle in.

On the other side, Mick Abel has looked even more vulnerable early on. He's appeared twice – once in relief and once as a starter – and has been hit hard in both outings. Against Baltimore, he allowed five earned runs on eight hits in 3.1 innings. In his start versus Tampa Bay, he gave up four earned runs on six hits across four innings. In both appearances, he matched his walks with his strikeouts.

The underlying numbers are even more concerning. Abel owns a 2.86 WHIP and a .538 BABIP, both unsustainably high, but also reflective of just how much trouble he's had limiting traffic and hard contact. His numbers will eventually settle, but against a desperate Tigers team, it may not arrive just yet.

Bet: Tigers Moneyline (-132)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals

Lugo is making his first start since May 11th after coming back from the DL

Another team enduring a losing streak is the Chicago White Sox, who just got swept in a three-game set against the Baltimore Orioles.

Their adversary tonight didn't fare much better in their previous series, as the Royals dropped two of three on the road in Cleveland against the Guardians.

It doesn't feel like there should be much optimism for the White Sox snapping their skid tonight given the pitching matchup.

The Sox are in line to face veteran right-hander Seth Lugo, who's off to a great start in 2026. Through two outings, he's compiled a 1.59 ERA and a 1.94 FIP. He has yet to give up a home run, owns a 0.97 WHIP and carries an 18% strikeout-to-walk rate.

Those numbers should hold up against a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in both OPS (.588) and ISO (.101) versus righties, while sitting 27th in wRC+ (75).

Kansas City's lineup doesn't stack up much better, but it's at least competent enough to inspire some confidence. The Royals rank 21st in both OPS (.631) and wRC+ (81), while sitting 15th in ISO (.120) against southpaws.

The lefty they'll face tonight is Anthony Kay. He spent the last two years in Japan and hasn't looked sharp in his two appearances back in Major League Baseball.

Through one start and one relief outing, Kay owns a 4.00 ERA, but an expected ERA of 8.66 and a 6.96 FIP. His HR/FB rate sits at 25%, he has a 1.33 WHIP and a disgusting -2.5% strikeout-to-walk rate.

This is a great pitcher for the Royals to face to get back on track in front of their home crowd, and I'm willing to lay the run line to back that conviction.

Bet: Royals -1.5 (+110)

Bets:

MLB Record: 19-11-1 (+8.14 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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