MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 6: Is Miami’s Moneyline a Must?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Mon Apr 06, 2026, 12:21 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Monday, folks! I hope you had a great Easter and are ready to get your week started on the right note.
Below, I've got a couple of plays that stand out on Monday's slate. Plus, our guy John Hyslop a.k.a. "Slop," has a best bet as well.
So let's get into our MLB best bets for Monday, April 6.
Slop's Best Bet: Andrew Painter 5+ Ks (+100)
Obviously, we're watching the NCAA National Championship Game tonight, but we can't forget about the guys on the diamond. They're trying their asses off out there. We can't let them play for nothing. It wouldn't be right.
What's even better is that we can play Andrew Painter during the Natty just in case shit gets boring. That's called using your brain. The thing with Painter is, we really don't know what he is yet. Is he a Strikeout King or is he some kid who got lucky to fan 8 guys in his first start? Who really knows? The thing is, at even money, he doesn't have to be a Strikeout King to sit 5 San Francisco Giants down tonight. Feels easy.
Danny's Best Bets:
Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays
Both the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays sit at 4-5, yet it feels like one of these teams is in a much better spot heading into Monday night's matchup.
That team would be the Rays, who are coming off back-to-back wins, including a 7-1 victory on Saturday followed by a 4-1 win in 10 innings at Minnesota on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Cubs won the first game of their doubleheader yesterday, cashing our moneyline ticket, but then blew a 3-0 lead in the second game and fell 6-5 to the Guardians. They've struggled to build any momentum, alternating between wins and losses in every game so far. I suppose the glass-half-full perspective is that they're at least preventing themselves from going on a losing streak.
Either way, I don't like the scheduling spot for Chicago coming off a doubleheader that taxed the bullpen, and I'm not a fan of their starting pitching matchup tonight.
The 34-year-old Jameson Taillon will take the bump for the Cubs, and despite what we saw in his first start, there shouldn't be much optimism.
Taillon opened the season against the Angels, tossing 4.2 innings while allowing just two hits and no runs. However, he walked four and struck out only three, and his xFIP came in at 5.97 despite the clean box score.
That raises a red flag, and so do his 2025 numbers. Last season, Taillon posted a 3.68 ERA but a 4.65 FIP, along with a 13.6% HR/FB rate and just a 33.8% ground-ball rate.
People can point to the ERA all they want, but I'm not buying it – especially against a Rays lineup that's been strong against right-handed pitching so far. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in wRC+ (119) and eighth in OPS (.758).
On the other side, southpaw Shane McClanahan will make just his second start since the 2023 season. Before his outing last week, he hadn't appeared in a Major League game in 972 days after undergoing Tommy John surgery and dealing with a left triceps nerve injury.
Still, he looked solid in his return, going 4.2 innings while allowing just two hits and two earned runs against the Brewers. The velocity is still there, and he should be able to work efficiently against a Chicago lineup that's been inconsistent out of the gate.
The market is trending toward the home side, and I agree. Let's back the Rays on the moneyline and bank on McClanahan holding his own.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-115)
Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins
The red-hot Reds look to extend their win streak to four as they head to South Beach to take on the Miami Marlins.
Cincinnati swept the Rangers over the weekend, improving to 6-3 on the young season.
The Marlins also sit at 6-3, though they cooled off a bit after dropping two of three in New York against the Yankees. They did avoid the sweep with a narrow 7-6 win on Sunday.
I like their chances to pick up another win here, as they turn to right-hander Janson Junk on the mound tonight. In his first start against the White Sox, Junk went 4.1 innings, allowing five hits and two runs, while striking out five and walking just one. His ERA sits at 4.15, but his FIP is a much sharper 1.58.
I'm expecting big things from Junk this season, and I think that success carries into this matchup against a Reds lineup that hasn't performed as well as its record suggests. Against right-handed pitching, Cincinnati ranks 29th in ISO (.104), 28th in wRC+ (73) and 27th in OPS (.606).
On the other side, the Marlins offense has been strong against lefties, which is what they'll see tonight with Brandon Williamson on the mound. Miami ranks 12th in OPS (.693) and 13th in wRC+ (99) against southpaws so far.
Williamson is a unique case, coming off Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2025 season. In 2024, he threw just 14.1 innings, posting a 3.77 ERA but a 6.59 FIP. In his largest sample back in 2023 (117 innings), he recorded a 4.46 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, a 37% ground-ball rate and a 12.2% HR/FB rate.
The numbers weren't overly impressive then, and coming off major surgery, I'm not optimistic they take a step forward.
His first start back didn't help matters, either – he allowed six earned runs on six hits, including three homers, with two walks and three strikeouts over 4.2 innings against the Pirates.
I expect those struggles to persist against what's been a solid Marlins lineup, so I'll be fading the Reds' chances of extending their win streak tonight.
Best Bet: Marlins Moneyline (-125)
MLB Record: 14-7-1 (+7.42 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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