MLB Best Bets for Friday, April 3: Bounce Back Time in Boston
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Fri Apr 03, 2026, 12:39 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Friday, folks! The best part about Fridays this time of year is getting to sweat out some day baseball.
After just a three-game slate yesterday, one that I got rocked on, we've got all 30 teams taking the field throughout the afternoon and evening. So let's dive into a few of my MLB best bets for Friday, April 3.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, April 3
San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox
At 2:10 PM ET, Sonny Gray and the Red Sox will square off against Michael King and the Padres.
After winning their first game of the season, the Red Sox have suffered five straight losses. Their adversary hasn't fared much better, sitting at a record of just 2-4, though they are coming off a 7-1 win against the Giants on Wednesday.
In Gray's first outing this year, he went four innings at Cincinnati, giving up six hits and three earned runs, while striking out five batters. The glass-half-full perspective is that his xFIP indicates his outcome should have been better, as he finished with a 2.50 xFIP despite a 6.75 ERA.
In the opposing dugout, Michael King's first start was the opposite. King went five innings, allowing just one run and one hit against the Tigers, striking out six, but walking four. His xFIP came out to 4.92 in that game, however.
Regardless of the first-game results, these pitchers are both solid. I'm going to invest in Sonny Gray making his home opening debut for a desperate Red Sox team and back their moneyline price.
Best Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-120)
Houston Astros vs Athletics
Following an afternoon sweat, we'll be taking our action to the capital of California, where the Athletics will be hosting the Astros in their Minor League ballpark in Sacramento.
Following an afternoon sweat, we'll be taking our action to the capital of California, where the Athletics will be hosting the Astros in their Minor League ballpark in Sacramento.
The Athletics have started their season 1-5, while the Astros got into a groove instantly, with a 5-2 record.
The 33-year-old lefty Jeffrey Springs will aim to get the A's their second win of the year.
In his 2026 debut, he went 5.1 innings at Toronto, allowing five hits, but just two earned runs. Not a bad outing against last year's runner-up.
In 2025, Springs had a down year, going 11-11 with a 4.11 ERA and a 4.64 xFIP. He also had a 12% HR/FB and 32% ground ball rate.
To be fair, we should give him the slight benefit of the doubt for having to pitch half his games in a Minor League stadium in Sacramento that is a favorable hitter's park. So, all things considered, his numbers weren't as atrocious as they could've been.
Speaking of atrocious, though, that's the word that best defines Cristian Javier's 2026 debut. He gave up six earned runs on as many hits, with four walks and one strikeout. His ERA was 11.57, and his FIP was 12.15.
Javier's vulnerability on the bump is nothing new, as he finished last year with a 4.62 ERA and a 4.97 xFIP. His ground ball rate was below 30%, and his left-on-base percentage was below 60%.
The A's lineup still has plenty of power, and with a volatile pitcher like Javier entering a hitter's paradise, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get pummeled.
This sets up as a higher-scoring game that could get sloppy. The Astros have won five straight, but the day off could halt their momentum. Meanwhile, the A's are desperate for a win and return to their "home" ballpark in a favorable spot against Javier. Given that, I see a bit of value on the cheaper moneyline price for the Athletics.
Best Bet: Athletics Moneyline (-104)
Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The D'Backs burned me last night, and I considered going right back to them on the moneyline. However, I decided to get involved with the total instead.
Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez will take the bump for the home team, and one would think that he should have plenty of confidence after dealing in his opening start.
Against the Dodgers, Rodriguez went five scoreless innings, punching out two batters while walking just a pair and finished with a 2.94 xFIP. One run did score while he was out there, but it wasn't earned.
That outcome was a bit shocking, given he limited a lethal Dodgers lineup and considering what his numbers have shown over the past two years. He's been consistent, but consistently below average.
In 2024 he had a 5.04 ERA, a 4.57 FIP, a 14% HR/FB rate, a .322 BABIP, a 72.5% LOB and a 12.5% strikeout-to-walk ratio. Fast forward to the following year, and his numbers came out practically identical. In 2025 he finished with a 5.02 ERA, a 4.57 FIP, a 13% HR/FB rate, a .329 BABIP, a 71% LOB and a 12% strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Suffice to say, I'm not expecting another strong outing like we saw in his first start, especially against these Atlanta bats that appear to be heating up.
What we'll need to see is an explosion from Arizona's offense, which has scored just three runs in its past two games.
They'll face right-hander Grant Holmes, who has not fared well against Arizona throughout his career. He has four appearances (two starts) and has racked up a 6.08 ERA against them. Both of his starts against the D'Backs happened last season, and he gave up nine runs in nine innings.
Holmes had a rough first outing versus Kansas City, going five innings but allowing five hits, three earned runs and posting a 5.35 FIP.
Let's look for the runs to keep pouring in the desert tonight.
Best Bet: Total Over 9 (-110)
MLB Picks:
MLB Record: 9-5-1 (+4.52 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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