Game 1 Disclaimer
This matchup was postponed last night due to weather and will now be the second game of today's doubleheader. I will note this: if Juan Soto has a monster showing in game one, I will not be backing him in game two. That said, I stand by my entire read if the first game is quiet for Mr. Juan Soto, because this matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano should absolutely tilt in Soto's favor.
Soto Prop Analysis
The Mets slugger is coming off a three-hit performance against the Orioles and is primed for another productive evening. He enters tonight with the third-highest average hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box. In 60 elite-rated road matchups, Soto has produced the following:
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1+ hit: 61%
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2+ hits: 31%
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Home run: 26%
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2+ bases: 43%
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2+ HRR: 60%
Overall, Soto has cleared this prop in six of his last 10 elite-rated matchups.
Tonight, he draws 35-year-old rookie Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box this season. Sugano also grades poorly in average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage—allowing nearly 40% hard contact.
Sugano's Struggles
Over his last four starts, Sugano has a 9.50 ERA and is allowing a .381 opponent batting average. Left-handed hitters are batting .268 with a .489 slugging and .796 OPS against him this season. He throws 42% of his pitches below league average. His best pitch, the splitter, is used just 25% of the time. Soto has crushed splitters this year—posting a +5 run value, .313 batting average, 1.039 OPS, 204 wRC+, and a 57% hard-hit rate across a 103-pitch sample.
Again, if Soto is quiet in game one, I will be all over this prop. But if he goes off against Charlie Morton earlier in the day, stay away. I do not want to rely on a player to deliver two explosive outings in a doubleheader.
