Rafael Devers is back in the circle of trust, and tonight he draws a matchup that is too good to ignore. The Red Sox slugger has been consistent in elite-rated spots all season. In 146 matchups tagged as Elite on Batters-Box, Devers has hit safely in nearly 70% of them and has cleared 1.5 total bases 47% of the time. That level of production puts him firmly on the radar tonight.
Devers vs. Struggling Arm
He will face Marlins starter Janson Junk—fantastic name for a pitcher, by the way. Anywho, Junk has had trouble on the road, especially against left-handed bats. His 3.68 road ERA and .293 opponent batting average are already rough, but it gets even worse when you isolate for lefties. On the road this season, left-handed hitters are batting .357 with a .387 OBP, a .429 slugging percentage, and a .355 wOBA against him.
Even with a strong slider and curve in his mix, Devers matches up extremely well. He owns a +6 run value against sliders, with a .304 batting average, 1.016 OPS, and a 196 wRC+. Against curveballs, the numbers are even more absurd—+2 run value, .455 batting average, 1.251 OPS, and a 261 wRC+. Simply put, Junk's best pitches play right into Devers' strengths.
Given the matchup and his proven track record in high-rated spots, Devers is in prime position to stay hot. For now, he is officially off the betting banned list.
