When there is baseball, there are first five bets to be attacked. Today, we have a delectable matchup down in Atlanta, where your father's childhood best friend, Carlos Carrasco, takes the bump for the Braves as he tries to hold off the red-hot Fighting Fish.
The Marlins enter today with six elite-rated hitters, two above the league strikeout rate, and six above the league ground ball rate, per Batters-Box's current season ratings. Over the last four weeks on the road, Miami ranks third in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA. They also sit tenth in ISO during that stretch. On the season, the Marlins are averaging 2.35 runs in the first five innings when away from home.
Fish vs. Carrasco
Carrasco enters with the worst pitcher rating among starters—color me shocked. He is allowing five hits and 2.6 runs per start, while giving up 45% hard contact this season. In his last seven outings, the 38-year-old owns a 5.28 ERA, 4.49 xERA, and 40% hard hit rate. Opponents have posted a .271 xBA, .456 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA against him.
The veteran has allowed over this prop in six of his nine starts this season. If you can find an alt line at 1.5 runs priced around $1.80, I have no issue paying that juice. Still, I would suggest pairing it with something like Cal Raleigh to record a hit for a plus-money boost.
I am confident the Marlins can get over 2.5 runs. They have been one of the more exciting teams since the break and play much better away from Miami. Given how poorly Carrasco has pitched this season and with his age showing, this screams runs for the Marlins.
