After back-to-back games without a hit, is there anyone more due for a breakout than Cal Raleigh? Today's matchup against Yankees rookie Will Warren feels like the perfect bounce-back spot. Raleigh thrives on the road, and Yankee Stadium is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.
Big Dumper in the Bronx
Away from Seattle, the Big Dumper owns a .291 average, .667 slugging, and a 1.080 OPS. Enter Will Warren, who has struggled against lefties this season—allowing a .282 average, .460 slugging, and .832 OPS. Three of the five pitches in his arsenal are below league average, making up 41% of his total usage. The other 59% comes from his fastball and sinker.
Against those two pitches, Raleigh is the top hitter on the Mariners roster. He owns run values of +8 or higher, an OPS north of .975, and a wRC+ above 182. The Big Dumper is punishing both Warren's strong and weak offerings.
His road trends on Batters-Box are elite. In 28 elite-rated matchups on the road, he records a hit 78% of the time, clears this prop 57%, and hits a home run nearly 40% of the time. Yes, I sprinkled the home run. How could I pass up on a trend like that?
One final note—if Raleigh goes deep early, I highly advise jumping on his walk prop live. It currently sits at -130, and I am not paying that pregame. Warren has control issues, but I would rather wait and find value mid-game.
