Labor Day Dingers — Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Mon Sep 07, 2026, 10:30 am ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
mlb
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Moneyline
-1.5
-125
8.5
+100o
-200
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+1.5
105
8.5
-120u
+175
Happy Labor Day. What better way to spend the day off than a few extra brews and few extra home runs. We've got a big slate in the MLB and I'm locked in two big time hitters to help celebrate the holiday.
Let's jump straight into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 20-39; +24 units
Today's Dingers
Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (+350) | Lucky Rebel
Kazuma Okamoto is so due.
In his last 5 games, Okamoto is hitting .350 with a .600 SLG and 62% HH. He's got just 1 home run in 21 plate appearances during that time and that just feels wrong.
The Blue Jays are in California tonight, ready to take on the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. Winds will be blowing out around 5-6 mph and on the bump for the Athletics is Jacob Lopez.
Lopez has given up 15 of his 17 home runs allowed to right handed bats and he's allowed them to hit .268 on the year. Lopez uses a mix of his 4-seam fastball, slider and sinker 71% of the time this year and all 3 are pitches we've seen Okamoto crush this year.
He's batting .264 against these 3 pitches, with 22 home runs, a .490 xwOBA, 17% BRL and .530 SLG.
Okamoto is incredibly due and tonight feels perfect.
Sal Stewart Home Run (+470) | Lucky Rebel
Not someone we bet a ton, but Emmet Sheehan's on the mound for the Dodgers and Sal's lining up nicely.
Sheehan's got a 5.42 ERA this year, he's given up 20 home runs and he loves that 4-seam fastball/slider combo; especially against right handed bats.
Stewart's crushing both pitches, batting .261 with a .521 SLG, 16% BRL and .440 xwOBA. He's got a 41% HR/flyball rate against these two pitches and he's been crushing righties this year.
Sal's hit 29 home runs, 23 off righties and he's got a 14% BRL. He's batting .316 over his last 5 games, an xSLG of .498 and no home runs to show for it.
That changes tonight in Hollywood..
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