Game One of the NLDS between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers. Yet another heated rivalry we get to enjoy this October. The Cubs arrive fresh off a Wild Card series win over the Padres, while the Brew Crew has been resting and waiting for their first October challenge. The question now-will Milwaukee's momentum from the second half carry over, or will a week off cool them down? The timeless "rust versus rest" debate continues to live on in the divisional round.
Call me predictable, but once again the first five team total has my attention. The Brewers first five team total over 1.5 runs at $1.60 is a go this afternoon.
Boyd vs. Brewers
The Cubs will send out left-hander Matthew Boyd, who silenced the Padres in his last outing. However, the 34-year-old seems due for a letdown. His advanced numbers point to overperformance. In his last three starts, his ERA sits at 4.97, while his expected ERA jumps to 5.72, and his xFIP is 4.91. Overall, on the road this season Boyd owns a 3.90 ERA, allowing 5.4 hits and 2.5 runs per start this season.
Against right-handed hitters, the picture worsens. Over his last 60 faced, Boyd holds a 6.57 ERA, 8.08 xERA, and 5.22 xFIP while allowing 46.7% hard contact, a 13.3% barrel rate, and 26.7% line drives. Those right-handers have torched him with a .363 xBA, .654 xSLG, and .442 xwOBA.
Milwaukee has been elite at home all season, sitting top ten in most offensive categories over the last four weeks. Against lefties at home, they rank fourth in wRC+, fifth in wOBA, and second in walk rate, while owning the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball. In their last 60 plate appearances versus southpaws, five hitters are batting above .281, six hold a wOBA over .317, and seven carry an on-base percentage of .317 or better.
The Brewers finished the regular season fourth in first five scoring, and eighth at home, averaging just under three runs in the opening five frames. This feels like a prime spot for Milwaukee to strike early and set the tone. Boyd's magic from the Wild Card series will not last. Expect early runs from a Brewers lineup hungry to keep their postseason fire burning.
