After his two-hit performance on Tuesday that cashed our bases prop, Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed it up with an 0-4 outing on Wednesday. I am a believer in bounce back spots, and the young slugger finds himself in another favorable matchup this afternoon down in Tampa.
Guerrero Jr. Trends
Before breaking down the pitching matchup, let us look at Guerrero Jr.'s road production this season. He carries a .327 batting average, .411 on-base percentage, .509 slugging percentage, and .920 OPS away from home. Guerrero Jr. grades out with elite marks on both of Batters-Box's hitter ratings today, something he consistently earns.
In 27 elite ratings on the road across the last three seasons, he has recorded at least one hit 70% of the time, two hits 33%, and gone over this prop 55%. This year alone, in 13 such games on the road, he has tallied a hit in 77%, two hits in 46%, a home run in 31%, and cashed this prop in 61%. Even more recently, in his last ten elite road ratings, he has gone over his bases prop six times.
Baz's Trends
This afternoon, Guerrero Jr. will face Rays starter Shane Baz, a matchup that has already treated him well. In 13 career plate appearances, Guerrero Jr. owns five hits, including a home run and two RBI. Baz grades out poorly in matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact allowed on Batters-Box, and he is surrendering nearly 37% hard contact this season.
The struggles grow deeper against right-handed hitters. The last 60 righties Baz has faced are making 50% hard contact with a 14% barrel rate, while Baz has been tagged for 2.92 HR/9. Those hitters own a .388 expected batting average, .711 expected slugging, and .329 expected wOBA during that stretch. Narrowing to his last 30 batters faced, right-handers are producing 55% hard contact, a .355 expected batting average, and a .473 expected slugging percentage. At home this season, right-handed hitters overall are batting .275 with a .544 slugging percentage and .376 wOBA.
Guerrero Jr. vs. Baz
Over 70% of Baz's arsenal comes from his fastball and knuckle curve. Guerrero Jr. has thrived against both pitches in 2025. Against more than 660 fastballs, he is batting .326 with a 1.017 OPS and 191 wRC+. Against the knuckle curve, he has a smaller sample this season, but still carries a .462 batting average, 1.231 OPS, and 253 wRC+.
Looking at his career numbers against the pitch provides a larger sample: a .333 average, .865 OPS, and 149 wRC+. Against the rest of Baz's pitch mix, Guerrero Jr. is crushing those offerings as well, all of which rate below league average. These are very strong marks against nearly everything Baz throws.
All signs point toward a prime bounce back spot for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this afternoon. His elite road splits, consistent history of hitting in these top-rated matchups, and past success against Shane Baz set the stage for a strong performance. Baz is struggling mightily against right-handed bats, giving up hard contact at an alarming rate and allowing hitters to post elite expected stats across the board. Combine that with Guerrero Jr.'s dominance against Baz's pitch mix, and the matchup tilts heavily in the Blue Jays slugger's favor. This is an ideal spot to trust Guerrero Jr. to deliver once again.
