Yes, you read that correctly. We are riding Javy Baez this evening. No, not your younger brother's Javy, the brand new 2025 All-Star version. The one crushing left-handed pitching this season, especially at home, where he owns a .364 average, .878 OPS, and 147 wRC+ against southpaws.
While he has only recorded four hits since July 13th and has not logged an extra-base hit since July 7th, I believe this is a strong spot to back the Tiger.
Lauer vs. Baez
Tonight, he faces Eric Lauer, who has put together a serviceable season on the surface. However, the advanced metrics say otherwise. He owns the second worst pitcher rating on the slate today and has allowed 47% hard contact to opposing hitters over the last three seasons, per Batters-Box. On top of that, his matchup wOBA, ISO, and ground ball percentage are all poorly rated.
Lauer has been notably worse against right-handed hitters on the road this season. He throws a fastball 46% of the time, and Baez owns a .304 xBA, .520 xSLG, and 52% hard-hit rate against that pitch. Lauer's cutter, which he throws 21% of the time, is his second best offering, but Baez has been destroying cutters all year — batting .500 with a 1.372 OPS and 278 wRC+.
Despite only having a Great rating on Batters-Box tonight, Baez has some promising trends. When rated Great, he records a hit 64% of the time, goes over this bases prop 42% of the time, and hits over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI in 57% of games. For those looking to pair him with something, his hit prop is -175 on some books, a strong price for this matchup. However, I will be riding the +160 total bases prop.
Best Bet: Javier Baez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160) odds via BetOnline
