Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Props September 6th, 2026
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Sun Sep 06, 2026, 10:04 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-215
8
-115u
-104
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-180
8
+100o
-105
Last night we went 2-1 for a profit of 1.55 Units. That brings our YTD mark at 33-25 for a profit of 11.78 Units. Today we'll look at the Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies as they continue their 4 game series, at Citizens Bank Park.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Preview
The Philadelphia evened this 4 game series with a 4-2 victory last night. Kyle Schwarber launched his major league leading 41st home run of the season and Zack Wheeler tossed 6 sparkling innings of 1 run ball, adding 9 punch outs. The win put the Phillies 4 games back of the Braves for the National League East division lead. The Phils have made up a lot of ground lately and they still have 5 Head to Head meetings remaining this season. Pitching has ruled this series thus far, will that change today? Let's dive in….
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves (84-58) RHP Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.25 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
- Philadelphia Phillies (80-62) RHP Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.93 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel
Money-Line
- Atlanta Braves -110
- Philadelphia Phillies -100
Run-Line
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+152)
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-184)
Total
- Over 8 (-110)
- Under 8 (-110)
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Best Bets
Game Pick: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 -110 Lucky Rebel
I think we finally see an over in this series given this pitching matchup. Both Aaron Nola and Tyler Mahle have experienced rough 2026 campaigns, carrying sub-.500 records and ERAs hovering near or above 4.50. Their elevated WHIPs (Nola at 1.40, Mahle at 1.29) point to plenty of base runners early. The splits are in our favor as well. Mahle has struggled on the road this season where his ERA balloons to 6.10 on a 1.53 WHIP. Conversely, Nola's home ERA sits at 5.72 on a WHIP of 1.54.
Atlanta is averaging 4.6 runs/9 vs RHPs on the road, while Philadelphia averages 5.3 runs/9 vs RHPs at home. Citizens Bank Park remains one of the friendlier environments for the long ball. The Bank is rated 5 for runs today, according to BallPark Pal. Kyle Schwarber enters this stretch swinging a hot bat with an MLB-leading 41 home runs, supported by heavyweight sluggers like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner on one side, and powerhouse bats like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley on the other. There is plenty of firepower on both sides so I'll glady take an over here, on a low number, with 2 very suspect starting pitchers.
Player Prop: Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 Lucky Rebel
Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna is very familiar with Aaron Nola. Acuna is 21/60 lifetime vs with with 6 double and 4 home runs. He is currently swinging a hot bat as well as he's cleared this mark in 3 straight games, totaling 15 bases. Acuna has also registered a hit in 8 of his last 10 games. He is seeing the ball very well right now and he should continue that today.
Player Prop: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 Lucky Rebel
Luis Arraez is always a good bet to clear his total bases line. He's had success against Mahle in the past as he is 3/8 lifetime vs him, with a double. Luis is also swinging a hot bat right now as he's cleared this in 3 of his 4 games, including both games in this series. Arraez has enjoyed hitting a Citizens Bank Park lately as he's registered at least 2 bases in 5 of his last 7 home games. It may take 2 hits for him to clear this line but I like this matchup for him today.
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