I am not the biggest fan of riding hot hitters. I am more of a "this guy is due to explode" type of guy. However, Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is one of the best hitters in baseball when he is locked in, and coming out of the gates in the second half, he has been seeing the ball extremely well. He has racked up five hits, including two extra-base hits, in his first four games back. I like that most of his hits have been singles — he has not had an explosive outing just yet.
Ginn vs. Seager
Today he faces Athletics starter J.T. Ginn, who has been getting demolished by left-handed hitters. They are batting .360 with a .700 SLG and 1.139 OPS against him this season. Just insane numbers. Overall this year, the 26-year-old right-hander owns a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He enters today with a poorly-rated matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact percentage, per Batters-Box. He is giving up 37% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Ginn leans on three main pitches: his sinker, slider, and cutter. Two of those three are below league average, meaning nearly 40% of his arsenal is below par. He throws his sinker nearly 60% of the time — it is his best pitch, but it still only grades out just above league average.
No need to worry — Seager owns a .406 average, 1.000 OPS, and 197 wRC+ against sinkers, over a 132-pitch sample size. The Rangers slugger has an elite rating today on Batters-Box. In 57 elite ratings at home over the past three seasons, he has recorded at least one hit 73% of the time, a home run 26%, and gone over this prop nearly 50% of the time.
I think we are getting strong value on this number, not only because of the trends, but because of how well Seager is currently playing — batting .390 with a .634 SLG and 1.060 OPS over the last 15 days. Seager Day should be a good one.
Best Bet: Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
