Boots will be grounded at Coors Field this evening in the beautiful city of Denver, where I am all over the number one rated offense on Batters-Box today. You may be asking yourself, who? The Los Angeles Angels. They draw the benefit of facing struggling right hander Bradley Blalock, whose numbers make you wonder how he is still holding a spot on a major league roster.
The Angels enter with six elite rated hitters, two above league average in ground ball rate, and surprisingly, none above the league strikeout rate. That is shocking given how much this lineup has whiffed all season. Fortunately for them, Blalock carries the lowest matchup strikeout percentage of the day at just 10%.
In this spot I am simply fading the arm. The offense may be underwhelming, but Blalock's profile is too poor to ignore. He ranks dead last on Batters-Box pitcher ratings, with poor ratings in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout percentage. Opposing hitters have made hard contact over 40% of the time against him this season.
At home, the 24-year-old right hander owns a 12.58 ERA, allowing seven hits and 5.6 runs per game. Opponents are batting .385 against him at Coors. The road has been little better. Over his last five starts, Blalock holds a 9.39 ERA, 6.93 xERA, and 6.11 xFIP, while allowing 43% hard contact and a 13% barrel rate. During that stretch, opponents own a .325 xBA, .613 xSLG, and .415 xwOBA.
Bonus Play
Despite five of the six elite bats swinging from the right side tonight, Yoan Moncada will bring left-handed pop against Blalock. That alone makes him an appealing prop target. Blalock has been a disaster against lefties recently. The last 60 he has faced have tagged him for a 13.50 ERA, 7.59 xERA, and 2.29 WHIP, while posting a .386 xBA, .683 xSLG, and .431 xwOBA.
Moncada profiles perfectly in this matchup, crushing over 70% of Blalock's below-average arsenal, per FanGraphs. He has been quiet since last Thursday, when he recorded his last multi-hit game, but his home run price sits at +442 in the thin Coors air. If he is in the lineup, I see it as a 100% go to bet him to leave the yard.
This matchup is all about fading Bradley Blalock. His profile is simply too poor to pass up, especially in the hitter-friendly air of Coors Field. The Angels may not inspire confidence, but six elite rated bats against a pitcher with bottom-tier metrics across the board is a spot that demands action. Hard contact rates, barrel rates, and disastrous splits all point to continued struggles for the young right hander. Add in Yoan Moncada's left-handed edge and enticing home run price, and this game sets up perfectly to back the Angels' lineup while capitalizing on Blalock's glaring weaknesses.
