Coming off back-to-back hitless games, Juan Soto is in a prime spot for a bounce back against Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson, who holds one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day. His matchup ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage are all poorly rated.
Left-handed hitters are crushing Anderson this season, especially on the road, where they are batting .381 with a .698 SLG and .478 wOBA. Overall, lefties are hitting .322 with a 1.009 OPS against him. All three of Anderson's primary pitches grade below league average, per FanGraphs.
Soto ranks as one of the Mets' best hitters against fastballs, changeups, and cutters this season. He holds an elite rating in this matchup. When he has that rating at home, he records a hit 73% of the time, goes over this bases prop 41% of the time, and hits 2+ HRR 65% of the time. I avoided the HRR prop due to the juice, but that is a strong angle as well. However, Soto has surpassed 2+ bases in seven of his last ten elite ratings at home.
The Mets slugger is handling left-handers well this season, posting a .276 average, .841 OPS, and 139 wRC+ at home. This feels like the right spot to take his bases with no juice, against a struggling lefty.
Best Bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) odds via BetOnline
