We head back up north to Milwaukee once again to back the Brewers. Their offense has been rolling over the past few weeks and they are in another prime spot to explode against a struggling southpaw. That is why we are all over their first five team total over 2.5, priced at even money.
The Brew Crew has averaged just under three runs per game at home in the first five innings. They have been a top ten offense over the last two weeks and one of the best against left-handed pitching over the past month. Today, their lineup features a wealth of strong matchup ratings on Batters-Box, entering with four elite rated hitters and two more graded as great on the season.
Kikuchi vs. Angels
Los Angeles sends veteran left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to the mound. Hopefully the veteran got his typical 15 hours of sleep last night, because he is in for a long evening. Kikuchi is coming off a dominant revenge outing against his former team, the Seattle Mariners, where he went six full innings and allowed just one run. That emotional high is primed for regression.
Fortunately for us, Kikuchi holds the second worst overall rating on Batters-Box. He grades poorly in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. Through 31 starts this season, he has allowed 43% hard contact to opposing hitters.
Even more concerning for Kikuchi, he has been vulnerable to right-handed bats. Six of Milwaukee's six top rated hitters will bat from the right side tonight. Over his last 30 righties faced, Kikuchi has posted a 10.50 ERA, 6.59 xERA, and 4.76 xFIP, while allowing a .583 xBA, .805 xSLG, and .407 xwOBA. Yes, those are real numbers.
Bonus Play
Given how right-handed hitters have crushed Kikuchi, it is only fitting to back the hottest righty in the league against southpaws of late. That would be newly acquired Brewer and former White Sox slugger Andrew Vaughn. We are backing him to leave the yard tonight and contribute toward the first five team total.
Vaughn has been on a tear against lefties. In his last 30 at-bats versus southpaws, he owns a .420 batting average, .486 wOBA, and 1.108 OPS, with over 60% hard contact. At home this season against left-handers, he has put up a .410 batting average, .973 OPS, and 173 wRC+.
At nearly five-to-one for a home run, and without one since August 15th, it feels safe to say Andrew Vaughn is due.
The Brewers are in a prime position tonight with their offense surging, the matchup numbers lining up, and a left-hander on the hill who has been trending in the wrong direction. Milwaukee has consistently produced early runs at home and now faces a pitcher who struggles against right-handed bats, exactly where the Brewers are strongest. With Vaughn swinging a hot bat against southpaws and the lineup stacked with favorable ratings, the first five team total over 2.5 is the clear play. Add in Vaughn to go deep as a bonus, and we have the recipe for fireworks.
Bonus: Andrew Vaughn Home Run (+475)
